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As we prepare for the upcoming 2009 Pacific and Atlantic Hurricane Season , here is selection of blogs written by our own hurricane and wave expert, Dr. Steve Lyons.
2009 Hurricane Season Forecasts : TWC hurricane and wave expert, Dr. Steve Lyons, provides us with a perspective on the early forecasts for 2009 and how one might interpret them. -- "If I could tell you with 100% certainty a hurricane will strike your coast on September 10, 2009, would you do anything between now and then? Obviously no one can make such a forecast with any skill. So you should be ready, ready just as well every year for a potential hurricane strike. Eventually one will come to your coast, it could be in 2009 or it may be 100 years from now, but the potential for great disaster requires you to be ready just like when you put on your car seat belt each time you start your car, never expecting to get in a crash."
2009 listing of Atlantic basin storm names. They are maintained and updated by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization. Six lists are used in rotation. The only time that there is a change in the list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity.
Five Toes of the Hurricane Footprint: Dr. Lyons writes about his frustration pertaining to the limitations of the Saffir-Simpson scale. --
"What seems to be confusing everyone these days is that many news groups portray the damage footprint using only the Saffir/Simpson hurricane category, probably because it is simple and all broadcasters can talk about a number from 1 to 5, and probably because they do not have models to forecast each toe of the hurricane land footprint. It turns out that hurricane rainfall, hurricane coastal wave heights, hurricane related tornadoes, and hurricane ' WATER RISE' are each very poorly related to the Saffir/Simpson scale and to each other. The Saffir/Simpson scale was originally intended to be a wind damage scale and nothing more!" Continue reading Five Toes of the Hurricane Footprint...
Hurricane Rainfall Patterns (Part 1): Rainfall patterns (intensity and longevity) associated with tropical cyclones over land is a difficult forecast for the meteorologist. Dr. Lyons explains the complexities. --
"One of the most difficult tropical cyclone ( tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane) land impacts to forecast accurately is its rainfall. Because rain is highly variable in space and its patterns constantly change through time, forecasting where rain will fall, how fast it will fall, how much will fall and who will get flooded are very difficult forecasts indeed!" Continue reading Part 1...
Part 2 of Hurricane Rainfall Patterns can be found here.
Preoccupation with Hurricane Maximum Winds: To sum up Dr. Lyons' frustrations with the Saffir-Simpson scale, he couldn't place his feelings in just one blog. When you listen to Dr. Lyons and his argument(s), you realize it's a no-brainer that we need more than just the SS scale when trying to classify hurricanes. --
"I write this blog partly in frustration of seeing people (often through media reports) being preoccupied with a hurricane's maximum winds. Now don't get me wrong maximum winds are important for impacts at the immediate coastline, but they alone cannot be used to paint a clear picture of what coastal and inland impacts will be. Impacts include wind, waves, water rise and rainfall with a few tornadoes possibly mixed in! Maximum wind is directly responsible for wind damage the other impacts are more complex and some have little to do with landfall intensity. This is where the problem lies; people very often take action or are asked to take action based on that Saffir-Simpson scale classification for a specific hurricane." Continue reading Preoccupation with Hurricane Maximum Winds...
What Causes Hurricane Surge on the Coast?: It's one of more (if not the most) dangerous aspect of landfalling hurricanes. Dr. Lyons delves into the topic and answers some frequently asked questions concerning surge. --
"I know you have all heard of ' storm surge', the term used to describe some of the water rise on the coast from a tropical storm or hurricane. Here I will call it 'surge' because most of the time it is worst for hurricanes, not storms. So what in the world causes the water to rise on the coast, what factors control how high the 'surge' gets and why does surge height vary from one location to another for an identical hurricane? I will try to answer these questions." Continue reading What Causes Hurricane Surge on the Coast?...
Surge potential along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the United States. As you can see, some coastal areas are more vulnerable to surge than others. Source : Yahoo News |
