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Just over a month into the 2010 Hurricane Season, we've already had an intense hurricane roam the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane Alex became the first Atlantic Basin June hurricane in 15 years. It didn't stop there. Alex became one of the most intense June hurricanes since the 1950s and 1960s.
Given the ominous seasonal forecasts submitted by NOAA, Colorado State University, and WSI, you may wonder based on Alex, if we're headed for another destructive season like 2005. Let's shed some light on this by first comparing the '10 and '05 seasons-to-date.
 Are we on 2005's pace? We all vividly recall the destruction the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season wrought. You may remember we had to move to the Greek alphabet for names, once the list ran out after "Wilma". One other hallmark of the season was how l-o-n-g the season lasted. After singing a verse of "Auld Lang Syne" ringing in the new year, we still had Tropical Storm Zeta to monitor.
So, let's compare the current season with 2005's status, up through July 10.
2010 vs. 2005 named storms through July 10
On July 10, 2005 Hurricane Dennis made landfall in the Florida Panhandle, the season's fourth named storm and second hurricane. Interestingly, earlier in its life cycle, Dennis was the strongest July Atlantic Basin hurricane on record. Sound familiar?
So far in 2010, Hurricane Alex has been our only named storm. T.D. 2 gave it the good college try, but wasn't able to organize sufficiently prior to its South Padre Island, TX landfall.
That means 2010 is 3 named storms and 1 hurricane behind 2005's pace through July 10.
How meaningful is that, relative to the rest of the season? What does that mean going forward?
Fortunately, we're under the bar set by '05 through July 10, but let's look closer at climatology for some perspective.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the season's first named storm, on average, is in play by July 9, and first hurricane forms by August 10. So, you could say 2010's Hurricane Alex already formed early.
Also, roughly 75% of a given hurricane season's activity occurs in the peak months of August through October. Taken together, June and July typically account for only about 15% of the activity.
Thus a quiet June and July does not necessarily portend a quiet season, as was demonstrably proven in the 2004 hurricane season. 2004's first named storm (also Hurricane Alex), didn't appear until August 1. Then came Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne, leaving parts of Florida reeling.
Most importantly, it's not necessarily the number of storms and hurricanes each season, but where they track and how strong they become. The 2003 season was a good example, with sixteen named storms, but only one truly impactful U.S. hurricane landfall, Hurricane Isabel. The majority of 2003's other hurricanes were steered into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean.
2003 Atlantic hurricane season tracks
Red denotes hurricanes
Image: National Hurricane Center
Therefore, while large-scale conditions are generally favorable for an active Atlantic hurricane season ahead, you should be equally prepared each year for hurricanes. [ WEATHER.com ] |
