The global economy could withstand widespread disruption from a natural disaster or attack by militants for only a week as governments and businesses are not sufficiently prepared to deal with unexpected events, a report by a respected think-tank said.

Events such as the 2010 volcanic ash cloud , which grounded flights in Europe, Japan's earthquake and tsunami and Thailand's floods last year, have showed that key sectors and businesses can be severely affected if disruption to production or transport goes on for more than a week.

"One week seems to be the maximum tolerance of the 'just-in-time' global economy," said the report by Chatham House, the London-based policy institute for international affairs.

Just this weekend, the president signed new sanctions against the country of Iran. Now, Iran is firing back with a threat that could send gas prices higher than ever. Prices at the pump already have drivers in pain.

“I can barely afford it now,” said one driver.

“Three dollars a gallon…I mean, five dollars gets you what, a gallon and a half?” said another.

But if Iran follows through on a threat to shut down one of the world’s most important oil routes, analysts say prices here could skyrocket by summer. [cbs]

European leaders have warned of a difficult year ahead, as many economists predict recession in 2012.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Europe was experiencing its "most severe test in decades" but that Europe was growing closer in the debt crisis. France's President Sarkozy said the crisis was not finished, while Italy's president called for more sacrifices.

Growth in Europe has stalled as the debt crisis has forced governments to slash spending. The leaders' new year messages came as leading economists polled by the BBC said they expected a return to recession in Europe in the first half of 2012. [bbc]

"There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner," says hedge fund legend Mark Mobius, "because we haven't solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis."

We're raising our alert status for the next financial crisis. We already raised it last week after spreads on U.S. credit default swaps started blowing out.  We raised it again after seeing the remarks of Mr. Mobius, chief of the $50 billion emerging markets desk at Templeton Asset Management.

Speaking in Tokyo, he pointed to derivatives, the financial hairball of futures, options, and swaps in which nearly all the world's major banks are tangled up.

The Treasury Department said Wednesday that federal debt now tops $15 trillion - a staggering figure that has risen precipitously over the last decade.

The exact debt total stood at $15.034 trillion as of the end of business Tuesday, an increase of $56 billion over Monday’s tally.

All told, federal debt has risen $4.41 trillion since President Obama took office, and is nearly triple the size of the debt in 2001, when President George W. Bush landed in the White House.

Congress earlier this year raised the debt ceiling, which cleared the way for Wednesday’s new record figure, but tasked a special committee with finding ways to at least slow the staggering pace of growth.

The total of U.S. state debt, including pension liabilities, could surpass $4 trillion, with California owing the most and Vermont owing the least, a new analysis says.

The nonprofit State Budget Solutions combined states' major debt and future liabilities, primarily for pensions and employee healthcare, unemployment insurance loans, outstanding bonds and projected fiscal 2011 budget gaps. It found that in total, states are in debt for $4.2 trillion.

The group, which follows state fiscal conditions and advocates for limited spending and taxes, said the deficit calculations that states make "do not offer a full picture of the states' liabilities and can rely on budget gimmicks and accounting games to hide the extent of the deficit."

Weakness in leading economic indicators has become so pervasive the Economic Cycle Research Institute now predicts a new recession is unavoidable.

"The vicious cycle is starting where lower sales, lower production, lower employment and lower income [leads] back to lower sales," co-founder Lakshman Achuthan declares in the accompanying video.

Whereas Achuthan said the jury is still out in late August, the weakness in leading economic indicators — and ECRI uses a dozen for the U.S. alone, he notes — has become a "contagion" that is spreading like "wildfire." [YAHOO]

Time is running out to find a solution to the eurozone crisis and prevent another global recession, finance ministers warned on Friday, as they hinted that discussions were under way to boost the firepower of European rescue funds.

Financial markets experienced another day of intense volatility as investors struggled to interpret an emergency statement from the Group of 20 leading economies, which met on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Washington.

Investors were initially unimpressed by the G20’s message of support for the global economy, but several said they did not want to get caught out should policymakers unexpectedly decide on a radical policy response. Gold continued to slide sharply and US oil prices traded below $80 a barrel, their lowest in more than a year. Shares rallied modestly in Europe and the US, accompanied by selling in government bonds and the dollar. [ft]

With no solution in sight for Europe and new fears of a global recession, investors dumped stocks and commodities and ran to the safety of U.S. Treasurys

Treasury yields , as a result, slipped to historic lows with the 10-year yielding 1.75 percent and the 30-year at 2.86 percent.

The dollar was also a beneficiary of a massive fear trade that sent U.S. stocks sharply lower, on the heels of steep sell-offs in equities markets around the globe.

The worst performing stock market sectors mirrored the sell-off in global commodities markets, with materials down 4.6 percent and energy stocks down 4.1 percent. [cnbc]

The global manufacturing recovery appeared to have come to a grinding halt in August, activity surveys suggested on Thursday, undermining hopes of a vigorous economic recovery in the second half of the year.

Across Asia, Europe and the US, surveys of purchasing managers produced the lowest readings of manufacturing activity and orders since mid-2009, when the world economy was only crawling out of recession. [ft]

A more severe crash than the one triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers could be on the way, according to alarm signals in the credit markets.

London is reeling from three nights of rioting that's poured hundreds of people into the streets, leaving several local neighborhoods in shambles. One man is dead, dozens injured and arrested.

The protests have now spread to other cities, with violence reported in parts of Birmingham, Liverpool and Bristol.

Great Britain and other parts of the world are experiencing unrest at a time of global economic uncertainty and stock market volatility.

Here's a look at what's happening around the world and how economic downturns are bringing protestors into the streets. [cnbc]

Stocks took a sharp nosedive in another choppy day Monday to finish at session lows as investors fled from risky assets following S&P's downgrade of U.S.'s credit rating last week in addition to ongoing economic jitters.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 634.76 points, or 5.55 percent, to finish at 10,809.85, well-below the psychologically-significant 11,000 mark. The move marks the blue-chip index's biggest point and percent drop since Dec. 1, 2008.  [cnbc]

The number of Americans using the government's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) -- more commonly referred to as food stamps -- shot to an all-time high of 45.8 million in May, the USDA reported. That's up 12% from a year ago, and 34% higher than two years ago.

The program provides monthly benefits to low-income individuals and families, which they can use at stores that accept SNAP benefits. To qualify for food stamps, an individual's income can't exceed $1,174 a month or $14,088 a year -- an amount that is 130% of the national poverty level. The average food stamp benefit was $133.80 per person and $283.65 per household in May. [cnn]

There's "total fear" in the market right now, said Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at BlackRock.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) dropped 350 points, or 2.5%, with Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) among the biggest drags on the blue chip index. The only gainer was Kraft (KFT, Fortune 500), following news that the company plans to split itself in two.

The S&P 500 (SPX) was down a staggering 41 points, or 3.2%, with only nine of the index's components showing modest gains. The Nasdaq (COMP) lost 91 points, or 3.4%. Some of the better performing tech stocks, Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500), Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) and Netflix (NFLX) were all down between 2% and 3%. [cnn]

At the start of 2012, the extended unemployment benefits approved by Congress in December 2010, which cover a maximum of 99 weeks per person, will expire. Though the benefits are hardly lavish - a little more than $300 a week for most recipients--their total impact on the economy is huge, because so many Americans are currently taking advantage of them. Moody's Analytics estimates that when the benefits expire, $37 billion will be taken out of the economy, the New York Times reports. That's enough to exert a significant slowing effect--at a time when the recovery is already a long way from robust.

 Recovery? Who can hoenstly say there is any kind of recovery? Seems everyone I talk to says quite the opposite...

Across America today, people will gather for barbecues in their backyards, parades through their towns and firework displays lighting up the night sky.

They’ll be celebrating Independence Day – the birthday of the United States and the 235th anniversary of shaking off the oppressive yoke of British rule.

On this day in 1776 a group of 13 colonies broke away to found a new nation free to govern itself as it saw fit, pledging that each citizen would have the unalienable right to “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness”. A nation, as Americans are apt to declare without equivocation, which became the greatest on the face of the earth.

That’s the good news. On the flip side, however, a country whose hallmark has always been a sense of irrepressible optimism is in the grip of unprecedented uncertainty and self-doubt [ telegraph ]

The mixed signals regarding the economy's health are taking a toll.

Americans are growing increasingly doubtful about direction of the US economy, according to the latest survey from business-advisory firm AlixPartners.

In fact, an increasing number, some 61 percent, say they don't expect to return to their respective pre-recession lifestyles until the spring of 2014, if ever.

What's worse, a full 10 percent said they expect they will never return to pre-recession spending.

The last month has been a horror show for the U.S. economy, with economic data falling off a cliff, according to Mike Riddell, a fund manager at M&G Investments in London.

"It seems that almost every bit of data about the health of the US economy has disappointed expectations recently," said Riddell, in a note sent to CNBC on Wednesday.

"US house prices have fallen by more than 5 percent year on year, pending home sales have collapsed and existing home sales disappointed, the trend of improving jobless claims has arrested, first quarter GDP wasn’t revised upwards by the 0.4 percent forecast, durables goods orders shrank, manufacturing surveys from Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Fed and Chicago Fed were all very disappointing." [ cnbc ]

The dollar slumped to a three-year low against major currencies on Wednesday and its outlook darkened further as surprisingly soft economic data underpinned expectations that U.S. interest rates will remain low this year. [ yahoo ]

Growth in the food stamp program appeared to reach a plateau in February — with 14.3% of the population relying on the safety net program.

The number of food stamp recipients was essentially flat in February, the most recent month available, with 44.2 million Americans receiving benefits, according a new report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.  [ wsj ]

Oil slips as dollar gains, gasoline up for 34th straight day to $3.86 per gallon

The price of crude oil was stable Monday, dipping one cent to settle at US$112.28 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as the U.S. dollar pulled back from lows set earlier in the day..

In London, Brent crude lost 33 cents to settle at $123.66 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange

Oil is priced in U.S. dollars, so crude tends to fall as the greenbak strengthens and makes crude more expensive for investors holding foreign money.

The U.S. dollar has been weak because investors think the Federal Reserve will continue to keep interest rates near zero when it meets Tuesday and Wednesday. Rock-bottom U.S. interest rates make the dollar less attractive to investors.

Gasoline pump prices climbed for the 34th straight day, to a national U.S. average of more than $3.86 per gallon (101.97 cents US per litre), according to AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service.

In Canada, where gasoline prices are typically higher, the national average price on Monday was 130.06 cents Cdn per litre, according to GasBuddy.com.

A gallon of regular has increased 32 cents since March 22. The U.S. average price is now a dollar more per gallon than a year ago.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil lost 1.73 cents to settle at $3.1989 per gallon and gasoline futures added less than a penny to settle at $3.2785 per gallon. Natural gas dropped 2.3 cents to $4.389 per 1,000 cubic feet.

The combination of rising gasoline prices and the steepest increase in the cost of food in a generation is threatening to push the US economy into a recession, according to Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners.

Johnson looks at the percentage of income consumers are spending on gasoline and food as a way of gauging how consumers will fare when energy prices spike.

With gas prices now standing at about $3.90 a gallon, energy costs have now passed 6 percent of spending—a level that Johnson says is a "tipping point" for consumers. [ cnbc ]

The percentage of Americans who have jobs has fallen to the lowest point in three decades and now hovers just above 45 percent of the total population, according to an analysis of labor data published by USA Today.

The report, based on figures provided by the Census and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed that at 36.7 percent, Mississippi had the lowest percentage of population working.

Employment rates were also low in California and Arizona, where just over 37 percent had jobs. At 55.8 percent, North Dakota had the highest rate of employed residents. Overall, 45.4 percent of Americans were working, the lowest since 1983. Employment peaked at 49.3 percent in 2000. [ RAWSTORY ]