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Lyrids Meteor shower 2010 April predictions
January 24, 2010

2010 Lyrids Meteor Shower - April 21st& 22nd

The Lyrids are an average meteor shower, usually producing about 20 meteors per hour at their peak.

These meteors can produce bright dust trails that last for several seconds. This year's shower should peaks on the night of April 21 and the morning of the 22nd, although some meteors can be visible from April 16 - 25. The quarter moon will set early in the evening, leaving a dark sky for the best possible viewing in dark locations. Look for meteors radiating from the constellation of Lyra after midnight.

Anyone who enjoys watching the sky for "shooting stars" will have an opportunity to observe an old and reliable meteor display over the next several days: the April Lyrids. The best time to watch will be for a night or two around the peak, April 22.

These meteors are among the oldest known, with ancient records of them dating back nearly 27 centuries. The Lyrid meteor shower is also the first significant meteor shower to appear since the beginning of the year. While it won't produce a storm of meteors, it's a respectable show for those who are patient.

"The annual Lyrid shower . . . has always been my favorite," says NASA meteor expert Peter Jenniskens. "After the low (meteor) rates in the cold months of February and March, this shower is the proverbial swallow of spring for observers in the northern hemisphere." 

And in addition to the Lyrids, there is also a small chance to get a glimpse of some dazzling fireball meteors from a completely different meteor swarm.  Although probably much more erratic and far less reliable than the Lyrids, it's still worth looking for; one could call it a "wild card" for meteor observers.


Lyrid Meteor shower a "Faithful meteor shower"

The Lyrids are an annual display of fairly fast meteors that may be seen any night from April 16 to 25: they are above one-half of their maximum in numbers for about a day or two centered on the date of their peak activity.

This year, the peak is predicted to fall during the daylight hours (for America and Europe) on April 22. After the gibbous moon sets at about 2:30 a.m. local daylight time that morning, observers near latitude 40 degrees north will still have about 90 minutes of dark sky to watch for the Lyrids before dawn interferes. The southern states are more favored because the Moon sets earlier and twilight begins later. 

A single observer may count anywhere from 10 to 20 meteors per hour.

Norman McLeod, a veteran observer of the American Meteor Society, has described the Lyrids as rich in faint meteors, but with some occasional bright ones.  British meteor expert Alastair McBeath, in the 2010 Astronomical Calendar notes that the Lyrids are capable of producing meteors that are "spectacularly bright, with approximately 20-25-percent leaving persistent trains." 

How to see the Lyrid Meteor Shower?

Watching for meteors is easy. Find a dark place away from lights as much as possible. The predawn hours are best, because that's when the part of Earth you're standing on is facing the oncoming stream of debris — mostly sand-grain-sized particles — that make the meteor shower.

Lie back, look up, and scan as much of the sky as possible. The meteors could appear anywhere. Give your eyes at least 15 minutes to adjust to the darkness.

You can distinguish a Lyrid from any other meteors seen around the same time by noting that its trail points back to near the dazzling blue-white star Vega. You'll see this star sitting just above the northeast horizon around 10 p.m. local daylight time; by around 1:30 a.m. it will have climbed to a point more than halfway up in the eastern sky. Actually the radiant or emanation point for these meteors is just to the southwest of Vega, on the border between Vega's little constellation of Lyra (hence the name "Lyrids") and the dim, sprawling constellation of Hercules.

The Lyrid radiant is at its highest (right overhead for the southern states and not far off it for anyone at mid-northern latitudes) about the time that dawn begins to break.

Historic accounts of Lyrid Meteor shower

The Lyrids are following in the orbit of Comet Thatcher, which swung past us in 1861 and is not expected to return until around the year 2276. 

There are a number of historic records of meteor displays believed to be Lyrids, notably in 687 B.C. and 15 B.C. in China, and A.D. 1136 in Korea when "many stars flew from the northeast." On April 20, 1803, numerous townspeople in Richmond, Virginia, were roused from their beds by a fire alarm and were able to observe a very rich display between 1 and 3 o'clock. 

The meteors "seemed to fall from every point in the heavens, in such numbers as to resemble a shower of skyrockets."  The rate was estimated at 700 per hour!

In 1922, an unexpected Lyrid hourly rate of 96 was recorded. In 1945, a Japanese observer counted 112 meteors (most of them Lyrids) in only 67 minutes, while in 1982 several observers based in Florida and Colorado saw 90 to 100 Lyrids per hour. So it seems that sometimes there can be unexpected surprises with the Lyrids, although calculations by some meteor scientists suggest that the next outburst of activity isn't due until perhaps the year 2040.

Fireball wild card with Lyrid Meteor Shower

Over the years, during the last half of April, irregular numbers of very bright meteors have been seen coming from the southern part of the sky. These fireballs sometimes drop as meteorites, and possibly they might be the remnants from a broken-up asteroid instead of a comet.

Such speculation dates back to the 1960's thanks to the similarity between the calculated orbits of a shadow-casting fireball that passed over northern New Jersey on April 23, 1962 and a bolide (exploding meteor) which dropped meteorites over England, Wales and northern Ireland on April 25, 1969.

Meteor astronomer, the late Charles P. Olivier utilized 80 observations to compute an orbit for the 1962 fireball, while British workers used a computer at the University of Liverpool to analyze over 300 sightings of the 1969 bolide. The result showed that both objects have remarkably similar orbits.  Their radiant appears to be very near to the constellation of Corvus, the Crow, a little four-sided figure of fairly bright stars, like a triangle whose top has been removed by a slanting cut. You can readily identify it this week by facing due south around 11 p.m. local daylight time.  

Using the observations of the 1962 and 1969 fireballs, I've determined that a "window of opportunity" for possibly making another fireball sighting would come between 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on April 23 through 2 p.m. EDT on April 25. So across North America, the nights of April 23 and April 24 offer the most promise. Prior to midnight, potential candidates would appear to streak out from the south-southeast part of the sky, while after midnight they would appear to come from the south-southwest. 

Back in the June 1970 Journal of the British Astronomical Asociation, Keith B. Hindley and Howard G. Miles suggested that: "The period April 23-26 should be covered in the future by amateur and professional groups in the hope of recording further associated fireballs and perhaps meteorite falls."

 
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