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Natural Disasters
Up to 20 million tons of tsunami debris headed for Hawaii
October 23, 2011
tsunami debris

It could be the first official report of tsunami debris from Japan nearing Hawaii.

A new report coming from a Russian ship have UH researchers changing their predictions.   Since the March 11th earthquake and tsunami, researchers have been predicting it would take about two years for the debris from Japan to hit Hawaii's west-facing beaches.

“We have a rough estimate of 5 to 20 million tons of debris coming from Japan,” said UH computer programming researcher Jan Hafner.   An average of 10 million tons of debris, the same amount released into the north Pacific basin in one year, was dislodged and set adrift in one day.

 
Strong earthquake hits Turkey, 1,000 feared killed
October 23, 2011
massive earthquake turkey

As many as 1,000 people were feared killed on Sunday when a powerful earthquake hit southeast Turkey, destroying dozens of buildings and trapping some victims alive under rubble.

As night fell, survivors and emergency workers battled to pull people out of the debris in the city of Van and town of Ercis, where a student dormitory collapsed.

Residents in Van joined in a frantic search, using hands and shovels and working under floodlights and flashlights, hearing voices of survivors crying for help under mounds of shattered concrete in pitch darkness and bitter cold.

 
El Salvador torrential rain toll rises
October 17, 2011
el salvador torrential rain flooding disaster

Mudslides and road chaos have killed 81 people and forced thousands to abandon their homes in Central America.

The death toll from torrential rains in Central America over the past week has almost doubled since Saturday, with a further 25 lives lost in El Salvador.

A tropical depression that swept in from the Pacific on Wednesday caused mudslides and chaos on roads and forced thousands of people to abandon their homes in the chain of countries between Mexico and South America, killing 81 so far.

On Saturday, the death toll stood at 45 in the region, home to some of the poorest countries in the Americas. El Salvador, a nation of about 6 million people, was the worst affected overnight, with accidents pushing up the number of victims there to 32. [Guardian]

 
A look back at Hurricane Irene
October 14, 2011
hurricane irene off the east coast

Less than two months after Hurricane Irene barreled up the eastern coastline of the United States, a group of scientists from some of the areas hardest hit presented evidence of the storm's dramatic geological effects on their home states.

Researchers from Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York and Vermont took to the podium at a meeting of the Geological Society of America, to discuss what they've learned since the massive storm swept across the Northeast.

The numbers that are emerging, not surprisingly, paint a picture of a powerful storm that sent record rains surging into New England's waterways, causing landslides, massive flooding and billions of dollars in damage.

 
Luminous Sand Reveals Historic Record-Breaking Storm
October 14, 2011
record breaking flood storm surge

Using the natural luminosity of sand grains, researchers have discovered that a record-breaking flood hit the Dutch coast in either 1775 or 1776.

The finding reveals a new way to look back in time at extreme weather events. Measurements of floods, storm surges and other phenomena didn't begin in earnest until the late 1800s. That makes it hard for scientists to track whether weather is becoming more severe, and it also makes it difficult to predict worst-case scenarios for an area.

To go back further in time, researchers at the Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands examined a layer of beach dune sand exposed by a storm in 2007. They sampled buried sand grains from the layer and conducted an analysis called optical stimulated luminescence to find out how long ago the sand had been laid down. [LS]

 
Iceland Volcano part 2? Scientists monitor rumblings of larger volcano
October 14, 2011
katla volcano ready to erupt?

If you thought last year's flight paralyzing volcanic eruption from Iceland was bad, just wait for the sequel - that is the message from experts nervously watching the burps and rumbles of an even more powerful volcano.

Brooding above rugged moss-covered hills on Iceland's southern edge, Katla is bigger than nearby Eyjafjallajökull, which spewed ash all over Europe for several weeks and cost airlines $2bn (£1.2bn).

Named after an evil troll, Katla has a larger magma chamber than Eyjafjallajokul's, according to local scientist Páll Einarsson. Its last major eruption, in 1918, continued for more than a month, turning day into night, starving crops of sunlight and killing off livestock. The eruption melted some of the ice sheet covering Katla, flooding surrounding farmlands.

 
Floods, more floods, snow and smog
October 14, 2011
mroe floods, flooding, smog disasters

Tropical storm Nalgae brought flooding to Taiwan on Monday last week, with 103mm of rainfall recorded at Taidong in the south-east during the 12 hours to midday Monday. Nalgae moved into Hainan province in southern China on Tuesday, bringing 55mph winds and torrential rain. Elsewhere in south-east Asia, the unusually severe monsoon floods continue to be a problem over parts of Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Thailand. The floods on Vietnam's Mekong delta have been the worst for a decade.

Across the US, heavy thunderstorms brought flash flooding to parts of Boston last Tuesday, with 139mm of rain reported in Swampscott and 104mm in Peabody. In the south-western Colorado Mountains, the first major snowfall of the season last Thursday and Friday brought around 18cm of snow. In the eastern Pacific, tropical storm Irwin and hurricane Jova formed late last week. Both systems threaten to make landfall on the western coast of Mexico during this week.

 
Can the intensity of a hurricane be predicted?
October 14, 2011
hurricane prediction intensity

It is possible to predict the track of a hurricane with a reasonable degree of accuracy several days in advance. Unfortunately predicting intensity is less certain, and potential victims don't know whether to expect a rather heavy thunderstorm or something truly apocalyptic. Evacuation may be a wise precautionary measure, but when the promised devastation does not occur it looks like crying wolf.

Researchers at the Southern Methodist University in Dallas, Texas are developing a new modelling technique to predict the speed of hurricane winds. Known as the Learning Prediction Intensity Interval model, it is based on data mining using an advanced machine learning process. The computer itself works out the pattern of intensity development from a large pool of raw data, unlike existing methods where humans cherry-pick the most relevant historical data for a regression model to fit the current situation. 

 
Major hurricane Jova to slam Mexico Pacific coast
October 10, 2011
hurricane jova predictions path

Hurricane Jova strengthened to a major, Category 3 hurricane Monday as it marched toward Mexico's Pacific coast, threatening the idyllic beach resort of Barra de Navidad and one of the nation's biggest cargo ports.

Jova's maximum sustained winds built to near 125 mph (201 kph) by Monday morning, and the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said it reach Category 4 strength, with winds of greater than 131 mph (210 kph) on Tuesday before hitting land.

The forecast track would carry its center near Barra de Navidad, south of the larger resort of Puerto Vallarta, late Tuesday.

 
Jova could become hurricane over Pacific
October 10, 2011
hurricane jova pacific
Forecasters say Tropical Storm Jova is expected to become a hurricane in the next day or so over the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Earlier Friday, Irwin strengthened to become the eighth hurricane of the eastern Pacific season. Late Friday afternoon, both storms remained far from land off the coast of Mexico.

Irwin was moving west-northwest at about 6 mph (10 kph), but models show the storm could take a turn back toward the east and land. Jova was moving northwest at about 8 mph (13 kph). Models show it also could take a turn toward the northeast and make landfall sometime next week over Mexico.

In the Atlantic, Philippe was downgraded to a tropical storm from a hurricane. It was far off the U.S. coast and not expected to threaten land.

 
Government issues volcanic eruption alert on Spanish Canary Island
October 10, 2011
canary island earthquake volcano
The regional government of the Spanish Canary Island of El Hierro has issued a volcanic eruption alert following almost 10,000 small tremors recorded in the past three months.

The government posted a yellow alert — second level in a scale of four — Sunday and closed some hillside roads and a tunnel to avoid possible injury by falling rocks.

The island’s 11,000 residents have been told to monitor communications by the civil protection authority. The island was shaken late Saturday by a 4.3-magnitude quake. Seismic activity began in the area on July 17.

Like all the Canary Islands, El Hierro was formed by volcanic activity. It has some 500 volcanic cones.

 
Next Named Atlantic Storm Lurking?
October 07, 2011
another named storm for florida?

An area of high pressure bringing a much needed dry period to the Northeast through the weekend, will not be so kind to the state of Florida. To the south of this high, we could also see yet another named storm develop in this already active 2011 Atlantic hurricane season.

Below we lay out Florida's immediate concerns, plus an area we will watch for the development of low pressure that could affect a much larger area of the Southeast next week.

Florida's Immediate Concerns : With lower humidity and temperatures not quite as hot, you would think October is usually a nice month to target Florida for a trip. Unfortunately, weather conditions through this second weekend in October will not cooperate for those with vacation plans.  A persistent easterly flow will produce gusty winds of 20-40 mph and rain across the Florida Peninsula, particularly along the eastern coast. In addition, there will be increasing surf, dangerous rip currents, and a threat for beach erosion.
 
Earthquake Swarm Continues On El Hierro, Canary Islands
October 05, 2011
earthquake swarm canary islands
The Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN) has reported surface deformations exceeding 35mm on the Spanish island of El Hierro, where residents have been alert for a possible volcanic eruption.

The number of earthquakes recorded since July 17 on the smallest of The Canary Islands exceeded 9250 on Tuesday morning.

IGN confirmed on Monday that 1172 earthquakes were recorded last week, the majority of which were located in the sea to the SW of the 280-sqkm island. 52 of the earthquakes were felt by the local population, estimated to be approximately 10,000. A further 10 earthquakes, exceeding 3.0 magnitude on the Richter Scale, were felt during Monday and early on Tuesday.

Hierro, a shield volcano, has had a single historic eruption from the Volcan de Lomo Negro vent in 1793. The eruption lasted approximately one month and produced lava flows. The recent surge in the number and intensity of earthquakes prompted officials from the IGN and The Canary Islands Government to raise the alert level for the Hierro volcano to ‘Yellow’ late last month.

 
The Reality of Earthquake Prediction
October 03, 2011
reality of earthquake prediction

The devastating magnitude 6.9 earthquake that ripped through Sikkim on September 18, 2011, reportedly killing more than 100, did not catch everyone by surprise.

This is because seismologists have long been predicting large earthquakes in the Himalayas owing to the Indian Plate going underneath the Tibetan Plate at a rate of 2-5 cm per year for hundreds of years. However, the public perception of the earthquake prediction and what seismologists are able to forecast are far apart.

Since earthquakes occur suddenly with devastating consequences, earthquakes prediction is of great interest to the general public. However, the term “earthquake prediction” is often used to mean two different things for the public and the seismologists. [TOPIX]

 
Nesat and Nalgae bring floods to the Philippines
October 03, 2011
phillippines flooding 2011

Many typhoons have already battered the Philippines this year, and another two struck last week. Typhoon Nesat made landfall on Tuesday, bringing torrential rain and winds of up to 120mph to Luzon. Cabanatuan received 189mm of rainfall in just 24 hours with surrounding areas receiving similar amounts. Around 50 people were killed and 35 are still missing.

Official reports stated that more than one million people in Luzon were still trapped by flooding caused by Nesat. Before residents had a chance to recover, super typhoon Nalgae struck the Philippines on Saturday. Nalgae brought 150mph winds, and 365mm of rainfall fell on Deat in the 24 hours ending at 7am local time.

 
El Hierro (The Canary Islands) Earthquake Count Reaches 8850
October 03, 2011
canary islands earthquake el hierro
The number of earthquakes recorded since July 17 on El Hierro, the smallest of The Canary Islands (Spain), exceeded 8,850 on Saturday.

The surge in the number and intensity of earthquakes in the past week has prompted officials from the Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN) and The Canary Islands Government to raise the alert level for the Hierro volcano to ‘Yellow’, the highest alert status since the unprecedented earthquake swarm commenced in mid-July.

Hierro, a shield volcano, has had a single historic eruption from the Volcan de Lomo Negro vent in 1793. The eruption lasted approximately one month and produced lava flows.[Irish

 
Anak Krakatau raised to highest alert status- earthquakes are now continuous
October 03, 2011
Indonesia Mount Anak Krakatau

Indonesian officials have raised the status of one of its most dangerous volcanoes, Anak Krakatau, to a “standby” or level IV- the highest level. The Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (PVMBG), Surono said this is a rise in status that was set on Friday, September 30, 2011 evening at 24.00.  

The reason for the elevated status is because of the high-intensity level of earthquakes. Today, for example. “On October 2, 2011, at 00.00 until 12.00, there are 2745 recorded seismic events,” said Surono, when he was contacted by VIVAnews.com, Sunday, October 2, 2011.

Earthquakes under , Surono added, were even felt all along the island of Anak Krakatau. “The swarm of tremors are continuous and although small, 2 on the Richter scale, they are cause for concern because they are felt constantly,” he added.  He explained, almost since 2007, Krakatau has been stirred by unrest. “In a moment, it stopped, and erupted in 2009. I think this mountain is always in danger of erupting,” he added. [Translated From VIVANEWS.com ]

 
Error and Trial: Italian Scientists Face Prison - Earthquake Manslaughter
September 30, 2011
earthquake trial manslaughter italy

Six renowned geophysicists are on the hot seat, but is it for failing to predict an earthquake or failing to clearly communicate their findings?

Did scientists and public officials encourage residents of L'Aquila to let their guard down prior to a  tragic April 2009 earthquake that killed 309 people in that central Italian city? That is what an Italian court will consider Saturday as it resumes an unprecedented manslaughter trial of six Italian geophysicists and one former government official.

The defendants were part of Italy's National Commission for Forecasting and Predicting Great Risks that held a special meeting in L'Aquila the week before the earthquake to address concerns over recent seismic activity but, according to prosecutors, provided "incomplete, imprecise and contradictory information." As a result of this information, communicated largely via a press interviews before and after the meeting, many L'Aquila residents felt no need to abandon their homes, prosecutors allege. The magnitude 6.3 earthquake ended up leveling about 20,000 buildings in and around L'Aquila.  [SCIAM]

 
Is World’s Deadliest Volcano Ready to Explode?
September 22, 2011
world's deadliest volcano

The last time the deadliest volcano in the planet exploded it was 1815. It killed more than 71,000 people on the spot and it was responsible for a volcanic winter that caused the worst worldwide famine of the 19th century.

Now it may explode again.

This is the intro to a good piece over on Gizmodo about Mount Tambora on the island of Sumbawa in Indonesia.

If you didn’t gather it from the title and the staggering figures above, Mount Tambora’s 1815 eruption killed more people in total than any other known volcanic eruption in history.
 
US scientists testing earthquake early warning
September 22, 2011
earthquake prediciton science

Elizabeth Cochran was sitting in her office when her computer suddenly sounded an alarm. Beep. Beep. Beep...

A map of California on her screen lit up with a red dot, signaling an earthquake had struck. A clock next to the map counted down the seconds until shock waves fanning out from the epicenter north of Los Angeles reached her location in Pasadena: 5-4-3-2-1.

Right on cue, Cochran felt her chair quiver ever so slightly from a magnitude-4.2 that rumbled through Southern California on Sept. 1.

"If I hadn't known it was an earthquake, I would have thought it was a truck going by," she said.

After years of lagging behind Japan, Mexico and other quake-prone countries, the U.S. government has been quietly testing an earthquake early warning system in California since February. Cochran belongs to an exclusive club of scientists who receive a heads up every time the state shakes.

 
Typhoon, Quake Hit Battered Japan, 1 Million Evacuated
September 22, 2011
typhoon earthquake japan evacuations

A powerful typhoon made landfall in the main island of Japan today, killing at least six people, and forcing the evacuation of more than a million others. And just hours later the country was hit with an earthquake.

The 5.3 magnitude quake struck just south of Fukushima, where the March earthquake and tsunami crippled a complex of nuclear plants.

Typhoon Roke, the second major storm to hit the country this month, dumped more than 15 inches of rain in parts of central Japan within 24 hours, bringing with it winds of up to 130 miles an hour, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.

 
Scientists on Trial for Manslaughter After Failing to Predict Earthquake
September 22, 2011
earthquake predictions

A group of Italian scientists went on trial Tuesday for failing to predict an earthquake that killed more than 300 people in central Italy in 2009 despite signs of increased seismic activity in the area.

The seven defendants -- six scientists and one government official -- are accused of manslaughter in a case that some see as an unfair indictment of science.

Prosecutors say residents around the city of L'Aquila in the mountainous Abruzzo region should have been warned to flee their homes in the days before the quake.

"We simply want justice," L'Aquila prosecutor Alfredo Rossini said. The injured parties are asking for €50 million ($68 million) in damages.

The defendants were members of a panel that had met six days before the earthquake to assess risks after hundreds of tremors had shaken the medieval university city. At that meeting, a committee analyzed data from the low-magnitude tremors and determined that the activity was not a prelude to a major earthquake.

 
Japan: piles of tsunami debris turning into giant bonfires
September 19, 2011
japan tsunami aftermath bonfires

Piles of decomposing organic waste, metals and rubble from the devastated towns of north-east Japan have been bursting into fire, posing a new hazard to emergency teams tasked with clearing away the debris and people who are still picking through the remains of their homes.

Fire departments in Miyagi and Iwate prefectures have been called out to deal with 24 blazes that had started inside the towering piles of debris that are being gathered on the outskirts of towns that were devastated by the March 11 earthquake and the tsunami that it triggered.

Smoke has been reported emerging from wreckage at a further 13 sites.

The fires are apparently being caused by bacteria in the organic debris or metal reacting with water, fuel or other chemicals that were released when the tsunami - which in places reached a height of 132 feet - swept through these communities.

 
Earthquake prediction still stymies scientists
September 06, 2011
earthquake prediction

The East Coast earthquake left more than just residents unaccustomed to feeling the ground shake and sway in a daze. It also surprised some scientists who spend their careers trying to untangle the mysteries of sudden ground shifts.

Despite decades of research, earthquake prediction remains elusive. As much as society would like scientists to tell us when a jolt is coming, mainstream seismologists are generally pessimistic about ever having that ability.

They lived through the checkered history of earthquake prediction, filled with passioned debates, failed oracles and the enduring search for warning signs that may portend a powerful quake. The Earth so far has refused to give up its secrets.

 
Catastrophic fires burn central Texas
September 06, 2011
catastrophic texas wildfires

In a summer where brush fires have become a near-daily occurrence, firefighting officials said the multiple wildfires that raged across Central Texas on Sunday were the worst the region has seen all year.

Numerous wind-driven fires pushed fire departments to their limits and forced evacuations in Bastrop County, the Steiner Ranch subdivision, Pflugerville, Spicewood and other areas. Scores of residents were left wondering whether they had homes to return to as many of the fires continued to burn Sunday night.

The largest and most destructive fire was in Bastrop County, where a blaze burned 14,000 acres and grew to an estimated 16 miles long by the end of the day, said Mark Stanford, fire chief of the Texas Forest Service.

"It's catastrophic," Stanford said of the Bastrop County fire. "It's a major natural disaster."

 
Chances of big earthquake below Tokyo rising
September 01, 2011
large earthquake tokyo overdue

The possibility of a huge plate-boundary earthquake amplified by simultaneous moves in two or more focal areas beneath Tokyo has been increasing since the Great East Japan Earthquake, according to the University of Tokyo's Earthquake Research Institute.

The institute said that since the March 11 disaster, pressure on the tectonic plates beneath the city has changed and two or more focal areas may move simultaneously, resulting in a massive quake.

The institute intends to continue monitoring and assess the possibility of a huge earthquake.

The tectonic makeup of Tokyo and surrounding areas is complicated, with two ocean plates subducting below a land plate on which the Japanese archipelago is located. There have been many earthquakes in this area, as both plate-boundary quakes, which are caused by friction between the plates, and inland quakes, which are caused by faults in the plates, can occur.

 
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