The global economy could withstand widespread disruption from a natural disaster or attack by militants for only a week as governments and businesses are not sufficiently prepared to deal with unexpected events, a report by a respected think-tank said.
Events such as the 2010 volcanic ash cloud , which grounded flights in Europe, Japan's earthquake and tsunami and Thailand's floods last year, have showed that key sectors and businesses can be severely affected if disruption to production or transport goes on for more than a week.
"One week seems to be the maximum tolerance of the 'just-in-time' global economy," said the report by Chatham House, the London-based policy institute for international affairs.
The UK could stand "at most a week" of disruption if a natural or man-made disaster struck before severe problems, economic and social, that would bring chaos to the country, according to a new report from the international affairs thinktank Chatham House.
The authors blame a complacent reliance on the globalised economy and the widespread adoption of "just-in-time" business models that stress lean, ultra-efficient operations with little slack built in for any unforeseen circumstances or stock held in reserve. With public services and businesses being run as if constantly in crisis mode, even in normal circumstances, there is little flexibility when a real crisis strikes.
Surge in military activity in the region comes amid threat of EU embargo on Iranian oil and possible closure of strait of Hormuz.
Tensions on the oil shipping lanes in the Gulf have escalated with the announcement of new naval exercises by Iran's Revolutionary Guards and news that Israel and the US are planning to carry out extensive joint maneuvers in the region.
The naval commander for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, said the drill in February would be "different compared to previous exercises held by the IRGC". The Iranian navy finished 10 days of exercises in the Gulf on Monday, during which it tested a range of new missiles. It warned that Iran could close the strait of Hormuz, the narrowest point in the Gulf, through which a fifth of the world's traded oil passes. [guardian]
A British soldier's photo album showing at close hand the devastating aftermath of the nuclear bomb on Hiroshima has emerged after 66 years.
Sapper Ronald Taylor was posted to Japan just weeks after the country surrendered following the dropping of the A-bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
The British were tasked with trying to restore some of the infrastructure to the obliterated cities in the aftermath of World War II. Mr Taylor had with him his camera and took snaps of the surroundings he worked in but never revealed the haunting album to his family when he returned.
It was only after his death when his grandson Neil Watson was going through some of his wartime belongings that he found it gathering dust on top of a wardrobe. Several black and white snaps show a flattened landscape with barely a soul around and piles and piles of rubble and twisted metal lying where buildings once stood. [dm]
There were 11 earthquakes in eastern Ohio in 2011.
Most of them were not very powerful and caused little damage, but some people are asking about emergency plans if a major quake hits the area.
The new phenomenon of earthquakes in eastern Ohio is puzzling many people.
Some geologists say that discarded brine used while drilling for natural gas is being injected near fault lines. It acts as a lubricant, inducing the earthquakes [cbs]
As with every New Year there’s no shortage of forecasts for what’s to come. This year we, too, will attempt to interpret the crystal ball and share some items for consideration and a road map of events to keep an eye out for. We don’t like to make time-sensitive forecasts, because if there’s one thing we should have learned from the last three years, it’s that the expedient and self serving actions of governments, corporate conglomerates, and politicians are anything but predictable and often supersede any timetable we can come up with. In an environment based on incomplete information it is difficult to conclude, with any degree of certainty, which events will play out, when, how and what their consequences will be.
Who could have accurately predicted that governments would undertake the largest tax-payer funded bailout in history after the collapse of the financial system in 2008, further expanding the multi-trillion dollar global debt bubble, instead of letting it correct itself naturally? How many actually believed, amid protests from millions of Americans, that Congress would follow through with the passage of socialized health care in what it supposed to be the world’s bastion of free market capitalism? Who truly believed that American citizens would be, in one sweeping broad stroke, marked as persons-of-interest and domestic extremists for seemingly innocent behavior that can now land them in a detention facility for life without charge or trial? Did anyone foresee a complete collapse of the middle class, the wipe-out of trillions of dollars in retirement and pension savings through stock losses and inflation, the decimation of the domestic job market and wages, or the record levels of poverty stricken Americans requesting food assistance and unemployment insurance? [shtfplan]
Northern California scientists say they have found a possible explanation for the honey bee die-off: A parasitic fly that hijacks the bees' bodies and causes them to abandon hives.
The symptoms mirror colony collapse disorder, in which all the adult honey bees in a colony suddenly disappear. The disorder continues to decimate hives in the U.S. and overseas.
The disease is of great concern, because bees pollinate about a third of the United States' food supply. Its presence is especially alarming in California, the nation's top producer of fruits and vegetables, where bees play an essential role in the $1 billion almond industry and other crops.
It's similar in size to Mount Pinatubo, which in 1991 gave us the biggest eruption of the 20th century
Billions of tons of ash and magma would be ejected
Southern England would be covered in ash
A sleeping super-volcano in Germany is showing worrying signs of waking up.
It's lurking just 390 miles away underneath the tranquil Laacher See lake near Bonn and is capable of ejecting billions of tons of magma. This monster erupts every 10 to 12,000 years and last went off 12,900 years ago, so it could blow at any time.
Meteor watchers in North America can expect to see 60 to 200 meteors an hour streak across the sky early Wednesday.
NASA says the Quadrantid meteor shower should be perfect for viewing around 3 a.m. local time Wednesday after the waxing gibbous moon sets.
But the light show won't last long, NASA says – only a few hours.
The Quadrantids were first noted in 1825 and got their name from the constellation of Quadrans Muralis, which is no longer considered a constellation by astronomers, according to NASA.
Tens of thousands of dead herring have carpeted a stretch of coast in northern Norway — and then disappeared again.
The fish appeared on New Year's Eve, leading to speculation that predators might have driven a huge school ashore or the fish could have been washed onto the beach by a powerful storm that hit Norway on Christmas Day.
Jens Christian Holst of Norway's Institute of Marine Research says a combination of several factors was the likely explanation.
Five dollars a gallon for gas? Analysts say it could happen this year.
Just this weekend, the president signed new sanctions against the country of Iran. Now, Iran is firing back with a threat that could send gas prices higher than ever. Prices at the pump already have drivers in pain.
“I can barely afford it now,” said one driver.
“Three dollars a gallon…I mean, five dollars gets you what, a gallon and a half?” said another.
But if Iran follows through on a threat to shut down one of the world’s most important oil routes, analysts say prices here could skyrocket by summer. [cbs]
A northeast Ohio well used to dispose of wastewater from oil and gas drilling almost certainly caused a series of 11 minor quakes in the Youngstown area since last spring, a seismologist investigating the quakes said Monday.
Research is continuing on the now-shuttered injection well at Youngstown and seismic activity, but it might take a year for the wastewater-related rumblings in the earth to dissipate, said John Armbruster of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York.
Brine wastewater dumped in wells comes from drilling operations, including the so-called fracking process to extract gas from underground shale that has been a source of concern among environmental groups and some property owners. Injection wells have also been suspected in quakes in Ashtabula in far northeast Ohio, and in Arkansas, Colorado, and Oklahoma, Armbruster said. [yahoo]
According to the FBI, over 1.5 million background checks on customers were requested by gun dealers to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System in December. Nearly 500,000 of those were in the six days before Christmas.
It was the highest number ever in a single month, surpassing the previous record set in November. On Dec 23 alone there were 102,222 background checks, making it the second busiest single day for buying guns in history.
The actual number of guns bought may have been even higher if individual customers took home more than one each. Explanations for America's surge in gun buying include that it is a response to the stalled economy with people fearing crime waves. Another theory is that buyers are rushing to gun shops because they believe tighter firearms laws will be introduced in the future. [tele]
According to the ancient Mayan calendar, next year's winter solstice marks the end of a 144,000-day cycle. This cycle, which begins at the mythical Maya creation date, has already been repeated 12 times. The 13th will end in 2012, capping a full 5,200-year Mayan cycle of creation. This date has long been shrouded in mystery, with many claiming that it will bring destruction to our planet. [yahoo]
This is the time of year when some otherwise sensible people offer a prediction as to how the World's economy will unfold during the forthcoming year. Such forecasts are perfectly harmless and perfectly useless because the evolution of the economy depends on events that cannot be predicted with the requisite accuracy.
For example, the Atlantic Island of La Palma, just off the northwest coast of Africa, periodically sheds a few trillion tons of congealed lava into the ocean setting off a tsunami of such destructiveness as to make the 2011 Japan tsunami look like a ripple on the surface of a rock pool.
...far bigger than anything ever witnessed in modern times. It will surge across the entire Atlantic in a matter of hours, engulfing the whole US east coast, sweeping away everything in its path up to 20km inland. Boston would be hit first, followed by New York, then all the way down the coast to Miami and the Caribbean. [bbc]
So there go your New York mega banks and with them the global financial system. And that's not all the Americans have to worry about...
European leaders have warned of a difficult year ahead, as many economists predict recession in 2012.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Europe was experiencing its "most severe test in decades" but that Europe was growing closer in the debt crisis. France's President Sarkozy said the crisis was not finished, while Italy's president called for more sacrifices.
Growth in Europe has stalled as the debt crisis has forced governments to slash spending. The leaders' new year messages came as leading economists polled by the BBC said they expected a return to recession in Europe in the first half of 2012. [bbc]
