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A blue-ribbon panel of scientists is trying to determine the best way to detect and ward off any wandering space rocks that might be on a collision course with Earth. "We're looking for the killer asteroid," James Heasley, of the University of Hawaii's Institute for Astronomy, last week told the committee that the National Academy of Sciences created at Congress' request. Congress asked the academy to conduct the study after astronomers were unable to eliminate an extremely slight chance that an asteroid called Apophis will slam into Earth with devastating effect in 2036.
Apophis was discovered in 2004 about 17 million miles from Earth on a course that would overlap our planet's orbit in 2029 and return seven years later. Observers said that the asteroid -- a massive boulder left over from the birth of the solar system -- is about 1,000 feet wide and weighs at least 50 million tons. After further observations, astronomers reported that the asteroid would skim by Earth harmlessly in 2029, but it has a one in 44,000 probability of slamming into our planet on Easter Sunday, April 13, 2036.
Small changes in Apophis' path that could make the difference between a hit or a miss are possible, according to Jon Giorgini, a planetary analyst in NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "We have not eliminated the threat in 2036," Lindley Johnson, the manager of NASA's asteroid detection program, told the committee. The academy panel is headed by Irwin Shapiro, a former director of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Mass. It has a two-part assignment from Congress: Detect and deflect asteroids that might hit earth. First, the Shapiro committee is supposed to propose the best way to detect and analyze 90 percent of the "near-Earth objects" orbiting between Mars and Venus that are wider than 460 feet by 2020. About 20 percent of these are identified as potentially hazardous objects because they might pass within 5 million miles of Earth (20 times the distance to the moon). More than 5,000 near Earth objects, including 789 potentially hazardous objects, have been identified so far. Johnson predicted that future surveys will find at least 66,000 near-Earth objects and 18,000 potentially hazardous objects. A collision with one or more of these many objects littering the solar system is inevitable, Johnson said. "Once every hundred years there might be something to worry about, but it could happen tomorrow." The Shapiro panel's second task is to review various methods that have been proposed to deflect or destroy an incoming asteroid and recommend the best options. They include a nuclear bomb, conventional explosives or a spacecraft that would push or pull the asteroid off its course. Offbeat ideas are painting the surface of the asteroid so that the sun's rays would heat it differently and alter its direction, and a "gravity tractor," a satellite that would fly close to the asteroid, gently nudging it aside. The year 2029 could be crucial. When Apophis makes its first pass by Earth, its track can be more precisely determined. That will enable astronomers to judge whether Earth will escape with a near miss or will have to take swift action to avoid a blow that could devastate a region as large as Europe or the Eastern United States. |
