The La Palma Megatsunami

[Keovar]

The La Palma megatsunami, while not world-ending, is likely to be the most immediate and probable disaster of world-disrupting consequence. It's really not a matter of IF, but a matter of WHEN. If New York is destroyed, and it's the economic center of the western world, then you can just imagine the chaos that would ensue from it's destruction.

The scary thing is that some terror group might try to speed up the process by causing explosions in the rift line of La Palma. They could hit the entire eastern coast of North America, and as an added bonus, cause alot of destruction in Europe as well.

Perhaps this disaster can be averted, however. Maybe we could purposefully chip off sections of the landslide area in chunks small enough to not cause tsunamis. Of course, the inhabitants of La Palma are not likely to agree to such a plan, and there's the risk that by tinkering with the situation, we may make a mistake and set off the whole landslide...

[armageddononline]

I'm not certain, but I'm pretty sure La Palma is uninhabited. However, slowly chipping millions of tonnes of rock off an island would be extremely expensive, slow and would piss off a whole lot of environmentalists.

As for terrorists setting it off I'm not really quallified to say if its possible. They'd certainly need a nuclear weapon to do it, and would need to get it deep underground undetected. I think if they got hold of a nuke they'd just blow up New York directly, which would be easier for them.

Let's just hope terrorists never get hold of nuclear weapons.

[uwg]

Info: La Palma has 80000 habitants, 12000 tourist beds and is the subject in Madonna's song "la isla bonita"

[mrwoodchuck61]

Getting a nuclear device under ground deep within the island of La Palma would be far easier than one might think La Palma is made up of 2 volcananoes one active one extinct and has an extensive tunnel system under the island, The detonation of one or more nuclear devices with in this system of tunnels may not tigger an erruption but may produce enough heat to boil the the vertically trapped water pockets forcing an outward expansion that would be enough to trigger the predicted landslide into the ocean causing the megatsunami. As for the most bang for your buck and apparent ease of deployment wiping out the entire eastern seaboard of the USA would be an exceptionally tempting target to a nuclear armed group of terrorist or other enemy nation wishing to inflict the most damage possible on us. La Palma needs to be watched by US security agencies for such activities

[Raven]

In an BBC report I´ve heard, that an over 600m high wave, that´s a few hundred kilometres long, would flood the whole west coast of America within 20 km inside the State

[mrwoodchuck61]

Yes the wave would be around 600 meters and would wash in 20 km or 15 miles or so based on what was called conservative estimates, but it would be the US eastern seaboard/coastline La Palma is in the Atalntic Ocean in the Canary Islands off the coast of Africa

[Frator ERA]

Just posted a new thread on this, not realizing how big the discussion board was (only looked at the first page of discussions.

excellent discussion. A pity I missed it at the time.

[Zap_98]

Well, I'm lad that I live in the midwest :Bounce:
The appaclacians would surely stop it before it got here, and even wothout the mojuntains it would only be a minor trickle. Mega Tsunamis don't worry me (except for that time I was in verginia when I first red about it....)
Now, Asteroids worry me.

[bbbv3.5]

Has La Palma ever erupted before? If it has then why didnt a 1000 ft tidal wave destroy the east coast?

[bbbv3.5]

http://volcano.und.nodak.edu/vwdocs/volc_images/africa/lapalma.html Tells everything about La Palma...but no wave.

[MetalMilitia]

In 1958 there was a landslide off the coast of Alaska that was the result of an earthquake, and it winded up hitting the islands of hawaii pretty harshly. Entire 'sea-side' fishing communities were wiped out... and this was a 'minor' incident when you look at the nature of tsunamis.

(This was just on the history channel, 'wrath of god'... great stuff on natures devistation of you've never watched it.)

Scientists now realise that the greatest danger comes from large volcanic islands, which are particularly prone to these massive landslides. Geologists began to look for evidence of past landslides on the sea bed, and what they saw astonished them. The sea floor around Hawaii, for instance, was covered with the remains of millions of years worth of ancient landslides. This proves very well that events like these have happened, and will continue to... depsite what skeptics say, regarding massive 'slips.'

However, huge landslides and the mega-tsunami that they cause are extremely rare - the last one happened (they speculate) 4,000 years ago on the island of Réunion (Southern Africa, island in the Indian Ocean, east of Madagascar).

The concern is that the conditions for causing a similar event now exist on the island of La Palma in the Canaries. In 1949 the southern volcano on the island erupted. During the eruption an enormous crack appeared across one side of the volcano, as the western half slipped a few metres towards the Atlantic before stopping in its tracks. Scientists believe the western flank will give way completely during some future eruption on the summit of the volcano. In other words, any time in the next 100 to a few thousand years a huge section of southern La Palma, weighing 500 thousand million tonnes, will fall into the Atlantic ocean.

What will happen when the volcano on La Palma collapses? Scientists predict that it will generate a wave that will be almost inconceivably destructive, far bigger than anything ever witnessed in modern times. It will surge across the entire Atlantic in a matter of hours, engulfing the whole US east coast, sweeping away everything in its path up to 20km inland. Boston would be hit first, followed by New York, then all the way down the coast to Miami and the Caribbean. This is the worst case scenario, of course. Should the peices collapse in such a way that not all of it 'tumbled' at once, it wouldn't pose nearly as much of a threat.

The volcano erupting itself has happened many times, they could care less of the volcano errupts. The fear here is that it will shift the structure of the volcano, and cause the tons and tons of rock to 'slip' and do a giant cannon-ball.

Sources : BBC, Wrath of God (history channel), The world factbook.

-MM- :crs:

[lotrfan55345]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2000/mega_tsunami.shtml

^

BBC Horizons, Science + Nature.

[bbbv3.5]

It has erupted before. Latest was 1971. No tidal wave. My question is why? Not a lifestory of volcanoes MM. :D

[lotrfan55345]

Look at this place called armageddononline.org

It doesent HAVE to... the pressure was not ENOUGH to cause Landslide. Next time, it may not have to erupt.

[MR.G]

bbbb, MM posted an excellent reply however you don't seem capable of understanding the post so I'll clarify.

The volcano has erupted before - many times before - but it didn't crack the mountain in half. During one of the latest eruptions a large CRACK formed. If the half to 40% of the island breaks off and tumbles to the bottom of the ocean the speed and displacement will cause the destrctive wave that is described.

The volcano could erupt for the next 50 years and NOT cause that chunk of island to break off and collapse into the sea.

On the other hand a minor earth tremor while I type this COULD cause the fracture to happen.

NO fracture. No huge wave. Every earthquake isn't a 9.2. Every thunderstorm doesn't turn into a Cat 5 hurricane. The fracture is simply an added danger to the equation. It hasn't happened - yet - despite numerous eruptions - but it could. Any minute.

There is a similar fracture on the Big Island of Hawaii. Mona Loa has been erupting since what(?) 1987 - and that crack has only grown wider. It hasn't broken off yet either. When it does most of the west coast of the USA and coastal Japan/China/Philipines will cease to exist.

[bbbv3.5]

oooooooooooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhh. i dont like you anymore. You called me stupid. Only I can call myself stupid. lol

[Defiant Noquisi]

What will happen when the volcano on La Palma collapses? Scientists predict that it will generate a wave that will be almost inconceivably destructive, far bigger than anything ever witnessed in modern times. It will surge across the entire Atlantic in a matter of hours, engulfing the whole US east coast, sweeping away everything in its path up to 20km inland. Boston would be hit first, followed by New York, then all the way down the coast to Miami and the Caribbean. Damn! My sister better read more about this. She just might end up with ocean front property in the mountains where she lives now! LOL

[VegasRonin]

Damn! My sister better read more about this. She just might end up with ocean front property in the mountains where she lives now! LOL Clothing optional I presume? :sardonic:

[Defiant Noquisi]

Clothing optional I presume? :sardonic: JEEBUS!!! Especially if you are there!

[lotrfan55345]

http://www.armageddononline.org/forums/showthread.php?t=876

Yeah....

[Coolio]

Well, i live in Miami, Florida. I think a good plan to prevent teh death of ppl, would be to trigger a megatsunami, we first evac the cities, and then trigger the tsunami. Of course this will bring billions in money loses, but will save lots of lifes.

[MR.G]

an excellent plan.

Let's do what the terrorists don't have any hope of doing themselves and wipe out every coastal city in the North Atlantic to prevent the terrorists from doing the same thing...only all the people will be safe in Kansas City.

Nah Nah Nah on the terrorists!

Good plan.

Think of the job opportunities.

Just wondering. Are you old enough to vote? :Bott:

[LC Jeffries]

Just make sure you have plenty of scuba gear. Florida just may become one great big ocean. :grin :rolling:

[Coolio]

Hey, thats better than kill all the people, cuz evacation wont be fast enough, and ther eis no way of surviving a 50 M wave her in miami, most buildings r shorter than that.

[Doomer]

This weekend I stumbled upon an article on the web that said the Cumbre Vieja was ever so slowly slipping towards the ocean and has been since it moved 15 feet during the 1949 eruption. The article said that this slow movement was an indication of just how precarious the volcano really was and that Governments on both sides of the Atlantic should be paying more attention to this potential catastrophe than they are.

Unfortunately, I lost the site and haven't been able to retrace my steps back to it. :(

Is there any truth to this "slow movement" ? If there is then the fear factor should be ratcheted up quite a few notches.

[Bigsky770]

. . .The Cumbre Vieja is that slope of the island-volcano of "La Palma" that is threatening to slide into the Atlantic Ocean. When it finally happens it threatens to be catastrophic; Movement HAS been detected though at a slow-rate, it is thought that the next eruption of this volcano could accomplish this quite handily. I am going to combine this thread with the one we already have going on "La-Palma". . .

Joe (Bigsky770) :vbroll:

[Red Shift]

What will the effects be if it does slide into the ocean?

[Bigsky770]

. . .Mere words couldn't describe what is thought that would happen; All coastal cities in America and Europe could be inundated as far as 20 miles inland by a megatsunami anywhere from 65 to 200 feet in height. . .Cities like New York would be literally scoured clean-off the face of the earth. :no:

. . .And that's just off the top of my head; if I were to delve into the topic more as I once had, I am certain I could probably recall more. . .

Joe (Bigsky770) :vbroll:

[VegasRonin]

I finally caught a show on this topic. Last week on The History Channel. The U.S. Eastern Seaboard was jacked, and New York was under water. I didn't know that scientist were as stoked on this subject as the show made it seem. They showed some lesser historical examples of similar occurences, and the speed and devastation which it occurs is mind warping. Pretty awesome stuff. Mother nature is still boss.

[Doomer]

Yes, indeed she is. Too bad politicians don't believe this. :no:

[Dhanishta]

It's unfortunate but the Earth is a dangerous place. No where is really safe! The coastlines of Australia where the majority of the population live are at risk from a mega tsunami especially from volcanic eruptions and earthquakes in the pacific ring of fire area. If such an event were to occur here you can bet that a sizable portion of Australians will be wiped out. The danger for Australians comes from tsunamis. Earthquakes are rare here and usually small and there are no active volcanoes in the country. But our proximity to the ring of fire does put us in danger.

These days everyone wants to live near the beaches and I sometimes wonder if that is a good idea. Australia is fairly low lying and flat in many areas and this may enable waves to travel further inland and cause more damage. Even though this hasn't happened yet, there is always the possibility that it can. And I don't doubt that it will happen one day. It's just a matter of time.

I don't have a front row seat for such an event as I'm a little bit inland but I wonder just how far inland a tsunami could go. Does anyone know any estimates of how far inland a huge tsunami could go?

As with the predicted tsunami generated from Cumbre Vieja the geological evidence does indicate that during a future eruption the volcano will probably experience a catastrophic flank collapse. Waves generated from this are estimated to be over 300 ft along the west African coast {Morocco} and over 150 ft along the Florida coastline. There will be some warning of an incoming tsunami but there may only be a window of minutes or a few hours at most to get away from the coast.

For those of you who want more info check out the following sites;-

http://www.es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/La_Palma_grl.pdf
http://eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2001-08/ucl-mtd082301.php
http://www.rense.com/general13/tidal.htm

[Red Shift]

And I don't doubt that it will happen one day. It's just a matter of time.

As Dhanishta says if something can happen it eventually will.

So wow we are in for a bit of a troubled time (understatement of the century) if it slides in.

How far in on average could a tsunami wave come inland, im in the center of england and thats still only 150-200 miles from the coast, i fear thats not far enough away, london will be gone for sure, yay get rid of the royal family!

And crown me king!

But on a serious note oh s**t

[Kohler]

Is it possible that this is what happened to Atlantis?

[Doomer]

I suspect that when a mega Tsunami hits a highly populated and built up area, the debris being swept inland becomes a major destructive force. you might be an Olympic swimmer but when that 2x4, traveling at 60mph, hit you in the head, you're still gonna drown.

I've read that the wave will sweep inland and average of 15 to 20 miles along the east coast of the US. Further along rivers and estuaries. No doubt the loss of life will be horrific and the challenges facing the survivors would would be unimaginable. I have no idea how the financial loss would be dealt with or if there's even a plan.

[Trippy Mushroom]

I'm not 100% sure on this but from what my teacher told my class (yes we are taught about the potential La Plama megatsunami in school) that a similar situation faced my city of Vancouver. An lanslide caused by a volcanoe on an island sent a megatsunami towards Vancouver island. But it never reached Vancouver island, it dissapated over the Marianas Trench. I forget what exactly happened, he was speaking french and I was dead tired.
But whats funy is, that my teachers are allowed to tell about certain disasters. Like the earthquake that will rock Vancouver. But they're not allowed to tell us about Yellowstone. I asked a teacher about it one time in front of the class and he said no there's no danger there. (I said something like "If there's a geyser there, then where the volcanoe?") After class he asked to talk to me and told me that it's a supervolcanoe and he's not suppossed to tell people that.

[Bigsky770]

. . .Great to have you, hope you enjoy all that we have to offer By way of information, chat/diversion or otherwise. Now down to "Business":

. . .If what had transpired in your classroom had happened exactly in the manner that you relate, I would find that not only strange, but also worthy of further investigation; meaning, if someone were to tell me that he relayed information to myself that was not supposed to be known, then yeah, THAT would raise a "red flag" to me.

. . .Your first task: the instructor/speaker at your school, find-out his name (proper) then do some digging through the web utilizing search-engines, name +Volcano usually does the deed, if not, try re-working the words to assist the search-engine to perform its' duties. Key-words are most important. If he has any worthy credentials at all, chances are that he has published. It'll take some work on your behalf, but READ EVERYTHING he's ever published. You may be surprised as to what you may learn. For the purposes of speaking at your particular school, he may have been advised to tone-down his language re; "catastrophic events" so as not to 'alarm' anyone.

. . .Give it a shot! Never KNOW what you may learn!

Joe (Bigsky770) :vbroll:

[Trippy Mushroom]

Oops, well he's only a grade 8-10 Immersion science teacher. But I gurantee what happened didn't coencide perfectly with my description. I wasn't really paying attention. I'll see waht I can find out about this megatsunami.

[Dhanishta]

Very interesting Trippy Mushroom! What that teacher said was unusual and I wonder if he knows more than what he let on. If he's a science teacher then geology might be one of his interests and he might have contacts with some geologists who know whats going on with yellowstone.

If scientists know from their recordings at yellowstone that an eruption is highly likely in the near future then do you suppose that they will tell everybody? I say they won't because they don't want to cause panic among millions of people who will be affected by such a disaster scenario. Yellowstone, if it erupts will destroy a large portion of the northern US and such information on the volcano's present status will probably go underground as do all other sensitive issues and information.

Nevertheless, keep trying to dig up what you can get on yellowstone and why your teacher is so hesitant to say anything. Good luck. The world needs to know the truth!

[Dr. X]

Wow! Can this really happen? Yes, and according to some historians it has happened before and will happen again.
Geeezz...I need to find the web site that said we all need to move to Utah..lol!

[Bigsky770]

. . .That's funny/and probably part error on my part; somehow I thought (mistakenly so) that this was a speaker @ your school. Oh well. . . (one still must wonder who was it that had directed him to 'tone-down' his language concerning "Yellowstone". . .THAT is still odd, in a word). . .

. . .Nonetheless, I LOVE search engines; You can still learn incedible amounts of info that way about either "Yellowstone" (or) "Megatsunamis". . . :bubble:

Joe (Bigsky770) :vbroll:

[Dhanishta]

I just found some interesting sites on Yellowstone for you guys to check out.

http://exodus2006.com/supervol.html
http://www.earthmountainview.com/yellowstone/yellowstone.htm
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/activity.html
http://www.lampholderpub.com/new_page_65.htm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/l/hi/sci/tech/628515.stm

Some of these sites are comprehensive but after reading them you will be able to make up your own mind on whether you think there will be an eruption soon. You can also see the latest earthquake seismographs at yellowstone in the 'earthmountainview' site.

[Trippy Mushroom]

I don't know that much about that teacher except for what another teacher has told me about him. He has university degrees galore. He can pretty much teach anything he wants.

But, I got the impression from him that there not allowed to wha'ts gonig to happen to a certain degree? The teachers can tell me that a comet will hit earth, but the teacher severly downplayed it. Same with global warming, another teacher severly downplayed the results of global warming as "just a rise in the water level". They purposely do this, not through lack of intelligence, but more through understanding. It's like they have certain levels they won't go past. Think about, do we really want to rock the fragile craddle that so many people live in during the teen years with a pending end of the world? What I find unsettling about that, is these are teachers, some who could be university professors (the science one) and there sitting there trying to lie to us about an impending doom that they acknowledge is a possibility.

You'd never get this open about this subject in the States. It's taboo in thsoe schools just like politics. I have yet to find a teacher at my school that doesn't think Bush is an idiot.

[Bigsky770]

Trippy Mushroom, The world that we live in is a GIFT of incredible wonder and beauty. In our mistreatment of her, we will pay the ultimate price in the loss of her, one that we cannot even begin to imagine.


They purposely do this, not through lack of intelligence, but more through understanding. It's like they have certain levels they won't go past. Think about, do we really want to rock the fragile craddle that so many people live in during the teen years with a pending end of the world? What I find unsettling about that, is these are teachers, some who could be university professors (the science one) and there sitting there trying to lie to us about an impending doom that they acknowledge is a possibility.

. . .That is, until it's too late.

Joe (Bigsky770)

[MR.G]

Canary Islands Landslides And Mega-Tsunamis: Should We Really Be Frightened?

What is the reality behind stories of mega-tsunamis wiping out the American east coast and southern England? Very little, according to Dr Russell Wynn and Dr Doug Masson from Southampton Oceanography Centre, who have been studying Canary Islands landslides for many years. Their research has shown that stories of a devastating 'mega-tsunami' some 300 feet high and travelling at 500 mph are greatly exaggerated, and that reports suggesting tens of millions of people could be killed have little basis in reality. .......

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/08/040815234801.htm

[Doomer]

Canary Islands Landslides And Mega-Tsunamis: Should We Really Be Frightened?

What is the reality behind stories of mega-tsunamis wiping out the American east coast and southern England? Very little, according to Dr Russell Wynn and Dr Doug Masson from Southampton Oceanography Centre, who have been studying Canary Islands landslides for many years. Their research has shown that stories of a devastating 'mega-tsunami' some 300 feet high and travelling at 500 mph are greatly exaggerated, and that reports suggesting tens of millions of people could be killed have little basis in reality. .......

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/08/040815234801.htm
Hmmmm, very interesting but the fail to address the very long crack and huge slice of land that moved towards the atlantic during the 1949 eruption.

[Marcopolo]

Wel, I am very tired so I did not real al o fthe last posts, but I teach geology here in the United States, and the situation of the teacher not telling you info, even in private, sounds rather strange and suspect. I don't know about Canada, but unlike what another poster said about Bush there is no restriction on what we can teach and discuss in class. There are certain unwritten ethical guidelines, like one should probably not deliberately mislead students by teaching unsound science and then lying to the students about it, etc. I am able to, and even have, taught stuff to my students that may be conidered "scary" or whatever and it is perfectly appropriate to do so as long as it is based on sound scientific concepts. Possibly the department chair got involved in this particular case for some odd reason, or more likely it was the teachers' own personal choice not to discuss this with you. In any case, there are no great insider secrets, all the information you could want on Yellowstone is public. Even if it wasn't, a private group, if determined, could even set up their own seismographic equipement, hire a couple of geologists and get a pretty good idea on their own of what is going on there. Going to bed now....

[Marcopolo]

i want to add one thing...a private group of people could probably find out most of what the government knows. The USGS doesen't necessairly know what allthe precursers would be in this sort of thig either, as no eruption of this type has been studied by modern science. However, you could go on the assuption that there will be many similarities to smaller volcanoes preparing to go off, as the geophysics involved is fundamentally similar. earthquakes and ground swelling are two major indicators of moving magma. If Yellowstone begins to get frequent, fairly constant small earthquakes at shallow depths, also known as harmonic tremors, then that would be a pretty good indication of magma rising towards the surface. That does not mean that there is 100% probablility of an immenent eruption, because the magma could just as easily pause or halt its ascent. If the hypocenter of the harmonic tremors get progressively shallower, there is major ground swelling, and finally, increased geothermal activity, then these would be strong indications that something may happen soon. If certain geysers change their frequency of eruption, or become more violent, that would mean that the tempuirature of the rocks had changed. If they quit altoghether, then you better get as far away as you can. It would probably be a strong indication that the rising magma is directly disrupting the geothermal activity, and a series of violent steam eruptions will soon follow. Of course this is all conjecture based on studies of smaller andesitic (high silica) volcanoes.

[VegasRonin]

earthquakes and ground swelling are two major indicators of moving magma. If Yellowstone begins to get frequent, fairly constant small earthquakes at shallow depths, also known as harmonic tremors, then that would be a pretty good indication of magma rising towards the surface. That does not mean that there is 100% probablility of an immenent eruption, because the magma could just as easily pause or halt its ascent. If the hypocenter of the harmonic tremors get progressively shallower, there is major ground swelling, and finally, increased geothermal activity, then these would be strong indications that something may happen soon. If certain geysers change their frequency of eruption, or become more violent, that would mean that the tempuirature of the rocks had changed. If they quit altoghether, then you better get as far away as you can.With the exception of the geyser(s), isn't Yellowstone showing us all those other signs?

[playmaker88]

With the exception of the geyser(s), isn't Yellowstone showing us all those other signs?

With the exception of the geysers stopping all together...

The following is taken from
http://www.yellowstone-bearman.com/geotherm.html

The world's greatest concentration of geothermal features is located in Yellowstone - hot springs, steam vents, mud pots, and about 250-300 geysers. The number of geysers can vary almost daily due to earthquake activity. Each time the park experiences a quake, much of the underground plumbing system changes or shifts which then effects many of the geysers in the park. A classic example of this change in activity can be found at Echinus geyser located at Norris Geyser basin. In the mid-80's Norris received a 3.5 quake which produced a very active and predictable eruption for Echinus. In May of 1999 Norris received a 4.5 quake which then made Echinus unpredictable, and at the same time created new activity just uphill at the worlds largest geyser; Steamboat. Update: Steamboat erupted for the first time in 10 years on May 4th, 2000!

Just one of many links stating that the geysers change their regularity and intensity.

[Doomer]

The world's greatest concentration of geothermal features is located in Yellowstone
This alone tends to make me believe that Yellowstone is next in line to blow it's cork.

[Marcopolo]

"Earthquake activity in the Yellowstone region is at
background levels. "-quoted offf the USGS website for July 2004. What this means is that there has been no significant increase, or change in either direction, from the typical amount of earthquake activity that has been recorded since record keeping there had begun. If there is a significant change in number, intensity, or location then the earthquake activity would be "higher than background level" . A volcano about to blow can have hundreds, even thousands of constant tremors in a single day. Also the amount of ground swelling that has been recorded-just under a meter, or a couple of feet, has occured in the space of half a century. Sometimes in the months prior to a major volcanic eruption, as in St. Helens and Pinatubo, this same amount of uplift/swelling can occur in a matter of months, weeks, or even days prior to blowing its stack.

[VegasRonin]

Also the amount of ground swelling that has been recorded-just under a meter, or a couple of feet, has occured in the space of half a century. Sometimes in the months prior to a major volcanic eruption, as in St. Helens and Pinatubo, this same amount of uplift/swelling can occur in a matter of months, weeks, or even days prior to blowing its stack. Methinks this be the key. Mother Nature has given us a built-in early warning system.

[Doomer]

Methinks this be the key. Mother Nature has given us a built-in early warning system.
We hope. (This message is too short so I had the make it longer)

[dcookcan]

"Earthquake activity in the Yellowstone region is at
background levels. "-quoted offf the USGS website for July 2004. What this means is that there has been no significant increase, or change in either direction, from the typical amount of earthquake activity that has been recorded since record keeping there had begun. If there is a significant change in number, intensity, or location then the earthquake activity would be "higher than background level" .
:bs: They haven't been taking measurements long enough to make a claim like that.


A volcano about to blow can have hundreds, even thousands of constant tremors in a single day.
This is not a regular volcano...


Also the amount of ground swelling that has been recorded-just under a meter, or a couple of feet, has occured in the space of half a century. Sometimes in the months prior to a major volcanic eruption, as in St. Helens and Pinatubo, this same amount of uplift/swelling can occur in a matter of months, weeks, or even days prior to blowing its stack.

In the so-called 'geologic time scale' this activity is of extreme concern. The bone heads at USGS think that less than 100 years of data within the framework of hundreds of thousands of years can amount to something? And they claim that what happens at 'normal' volcanoes is the same as what will happen at a supervolcano? The scientific accuracy is astounding!

[dutchie]

Although Yellowstone is interesting enough, let's stay on topic here, ppl...

I visited La Palma myself a number of times, and I have walked the entire length of the Cumbre Vieja. From the Roque des Muchachos on the top of the Caldera you have a splendid view of the southern point of the island. I have seen with my own eyes that this piece of land about to slide into the ocean is NOT a little piece of rock, that will just send a few ripples into the ocean. It is a HUGE chunk of the island, many miles in length, and it rises up some 2,000 feat from the coast. The ocean is VERY deep at the western side of the island, so that chunk of island will just keep on sliding until it hits the ocean bottom, which is just about as deep as the height of the landslide. That WILL definitely be a MAJOR HUGE SPLASH, I can promise you that!! It is hard to imagine the true effects of this landslide, if you haven't seen the amount of land we're talking about. I saw it. It's awesome. :ack:

[Susie]

Because so many figures are flying about about how big the wave is going to be etc. I decided to dig out the actual paper that predicts the tsunami as a result of flank collapse. If anyone's interested:

Ward, S.N. and Day, S. 2001. Cumbre Vieja Volcano - Potential collapse and tsunami at La Palma, Canary Islands. Geophysical Research Letters, 28, 17 pp. 3397-3400.

I also read a number of other papers on this and can provide references to anyone interested, but, this is a summary of what Ward and Day say (and remember folks, this was published in a proper, respected, peer reviewed journal).

Lateral collapses are a common feature of oceanic island volcanoes such as the Canaries. Evidence of multiple collapses is present on all of the Canaries, and also around Hawaii.

During 1949 (the last eruption of Cumbre Vieja), the underground dyke system changed orientation, and this is thought to be due to a weakening western flank. A geodetic system has been in place to measure ground movement since 1994, but no movement had been recorded up to 1997, indicating that movement only occurs during an eruption. A future eruption could lead to flank failure. Calculations of the size of the block that will fall into the ocean suggest that it will be about 15-20km wide and 15-20km long. Its total volume will be in the region of 500km cubed.

Ward and Day go on to model the tsunami which would be created due to this flank collapse. The model suggests that within 2 minutes of the initial failure, a dome of water will build up to 900m in height on top of the sliding block. Within 5 minutes, the wave will have outrun the block, and will have dropped to 500m. Negative waves (presumably troughs) will appear behind the main crest. Within 10 minutes, the block will stop sliding, and the tsunami will have washed onto neighbouring Canary Islands with waves up to 300m.

First landfall will be in west Africa, with waves 50-100m high. A train of waves 500km across will now be sweeping across the Atlantic. Spain and England will experience waves 5-7m high. South America will receive waves 15-20m high, whilst after 9 hours, Florida faces waves of 20-25m in height.

I hope this helps to clear a few things up.

[dutchie]

Then this link (where quotes by Day are provided) will certainly suprise you, Susie.

http://www.benfieldhrc.org/SiteRoot/in_the_news/press_cuttings/Insurance%20Day/why_the_only_certainty.htm