Which is it "ICE AGE" or "CLIMATE CHANGE"

[humanhybrid]

So much info on both sides as if they are in competition. Its enough with the economic woes. Where does the weight lay to ? HAS ANY BODY GOT A REAL GRASP? :confused:

[TC]

So much info on both sides as if they are in competition. Its enough with the economic woes. Where does the weight lay to ? HAS ANY BODY GOT A REAL GRASP? :confused:

Well the last 3 lasted around 100,000 years with 20,000 year interglacial periods. The latest ended about 12,000 years ago with the beginning of the Holocene ( age of man) So the math would suggest 7 or 8,000 years left with this current warming period.

The argument is the impute of mankind, and how much of this is natural. We have seen extreme warming before in geological past records, and some theories suggest huge amounts of ocean sediment methane gas being released can cause a radical climate change. At present human activity is probably responsible for a 1 degree rise in mean temperature. This doesn't sound like much, but it has its consequences.

But I think its safe to say we have a few thousand years left of this warming in its natural state before the next ice age. ( Giving that some unforeseen disaster doesn't change this scenario)

[humanhybrid]

SOUNDS! very reasonable. Could we expect any deviants? because of our 1% or more contribution of carbon etc. I see already climate extremes. What is your thoughts on that?:confused:

[Goldmoon]

Well, today we just beat a heat record for this time of year.

Hard to say really, because the newspaper said on the front page "Wicked Winter"

Unless we can go around the world, and take measurements, we have to go on what we know. What we know is that the extremes have been more intense either way, hotter & colder.

[TC]

SOUNDS! very reasonable. Could we expect any deviants? because of our 1% or more contribution of carbon etc. I see already climate extremes. What is your thoughts on that?:confused:

Oh boy, where to start.. one has to be careful who's or what effects are at play with climate, in as much as what is driving any changes. Our view of greenhouse gasses and their source is constantly changing. Once it was deemed a direct cause of mans actions, but each year new studies reveal increasing evidence of natural actions that also play a part in carbon/ methane build up. ( as mentioned above)

Now this is not an excuse for blatant pollution on our part, and I will admit ( to arrogance on my part) that several years ago I leaned heavily towards the idea that the whole "Green" issue was over-driven to the point of hysteria, jumped on by a consumer market to sell Green products, (which to some extent is true) and that other valid evidence to the contrary was being ignored.

But with education ( Paleoclimate) and good solid neutral research, I have ended up towards the middle of the argument scale. We have influenced the mean temperature, and combined with the natural interglacial warming, we slow the earths ability to adjust itself, this is seen with increased ocean evaporation and increased continental precipitation. ( heavy flooding and extreme weather systems)

And on the same line of thinking with increased albedo ( the reflective properties of cloud base) we can see a shift in what used to be routine seasons. The more rain, the more cloud cover, and less sunlight hitting the earths surface.

Probably the two biggest consequences of this that will be felt by mankind this next 100 years is one; Higher ocean levels ( in centimeters mind you...not in meters) and two; A radical shift in what used to be prime growing regions. ( the mid west in particular)

Now if one throws in a large scale caldera eruption ( deviants) into the equation, this will increase both factors with a massive dust and ash layer at higher altitudes, aggravating the mechanism even further.

Its important to remember that our little window in time ( some 30,000 years)
is a relatively calm period compared to our past. And we as humans haven't yet to experience the full brunt of the earths natural changes.... and we will be hard pressed to survive the next one, which in my opinion is the larger threat to humanity than an increased warming period. As there is no way to feed the billions during a 100,000 year ice age.