MetalMilitia
Dec 25th, 2004, 10:49 PM
Asteroid risk in 2029 sparks 'yellow alert'
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photos/041223/041223_space_asteroid_hlg6p.h2.jpg
A graphic created by NASA's Near Earth Object Program shows the orbits of the asteroid 2004 MN4 and Earth's orbit, as well as the paths of Mercury and Venus.A graphic created by NASA's Near Earth Object Program shows the orbits of the asteroid 2004 MN4 and Earth's orbit, as well as the paths of Mercury and Venus.
The chances of a devastating asteroid strike in the year 2029 were raised to an unprecedented 1 in 45 as of Saturday, but the perceived risk is likely to be eliminated as astronomers get more detail about the object's orbit. (Asteroid Impacts : http://www.armageddononline.org/asteroid.php )
Asteroid 2004 MN4 is thought to be about 1,300 feet (400 meters) long. That's not large enough to create a mass-extinction event (ELE : http://www.armageddononline.org/extinction_event.php ) , like the one that scientists say contributed to the demise of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. But if the asteroid hit the wrong place at the wrong time, it could cause a giant tsunami ( Mega Tsunami : http://www.armageddononline.org/tsunami.php ) wave or deliver a nuclear-scale blast. (Nuke : http://www.armageddononline.org/nuke.php )
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Photos/040104/asteroid_tease.jpg
Fortunately, that's a big "if." There have been only a limited number of sightings of 2004 MN4, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA?s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena. As a result, astronomers have to provide for a wide margin of error in plotting the asteroid's future orbit, and that's the main reason why they see a slight chance of a collision on Friday, April 13, 2029.
In past cases, such chances have been eliminated as further observations are made. In 2004 MN4's case, the chances of a collision were heightened somewhat between Thursday and Saturday, from 1 in 300 to about 1 in 45.
That led astronomers to give 2004 MN4 a rating of 4 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts. No previously observed asteroid has been graded higher than 1.
A category 4 risk is given to "close approaches by objects that have higher collision chances than Earth typically experiences over a few decades," according to NASA's description of Torino ratings. Categories 2, 3 and 4 correspond to a "yellow" alert.
"These are objects for which refinement of the orbit is of high priority," NASA says. Again, figuring out the precise orbit is likely to eliminate the risk entirely.
?This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldn?t be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets a hold of it, it just gets crazy,? Yeomans said Thursday.
The asteroid was discovered in June and rediscovered this month. Its estimated size has been inferred from its brightness, which assumes that its reflectivity is similar to other asteroids that have been observed. At about 1,320 feet in length, it would have about 1,600 megatons of energy, Yeomans said.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6751433/
1in45? Thats pretty damn small in cosmic terms. Too bad we have lots of waiting to do.
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photos/041223/041223_space_asteroid_hlg6p.h2.jpg
A graphic created by NASA's Near Earth Object Program shows the orbits of the asteroid 2004 MN4 and Earth's orbit, as well as the paths of Mercury and Venus.A graphic created by NASA's Near Earth Object Program shows the orbits of the asteroid 2004 MN4 and Earth's orbit, as well as the paths of Mercury and Venus.
The chances of a devastating asteroid strike in the year 2029 were raised to an unprecedented 1 in 45 as of Saturday, but the perceived risk is likely to be eliminated as astronomers get more detail about the object's orbit. (Asteroid Impacts : http://www.armageddononline.org/asteroid.php )
Asteroid 2004 MN4 is thought to be about 1,300 feet (400 meters) long. That's not large enough to create a mass-extinction event (ELE : http://www.armageddononline.org/extinction_event.php ) , like the one that scientists say contributed to the demise of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. But if the asteroid hit the wrong place at the wrong time, it could cause a giant tsunami ( Mega Tsunami : http://www.armageddononline.org/tsunami.php ) wave or deliver a nuclear-scale blast. (Nuke : http://www.armageddononline.org/nuke.php )
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Photos/040104/asteroid_tease.jpg
Fortunately, that's a big "if." There have been only a limited number of sightings of 2004 MN4, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA?s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena. As a result, astronomers have to provide for a wide margin of error in plotting the asteroid's future orbit, and that's the main reason why they see a slight chance of a collision on Friday, April 13, 2029.
In past cases, such chances have been eliminated as further observations are made. In 2004 MN4's case, the chances of a collision were heightened somewhat between Thursday and Saturday, from 1 in 300 to about 1 in 45.
That led astronomers to give 2004 MN4 a rating of 4 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts. No previously observed asteroid has been graded higher than 1.
A category 4 risk is given to "close approaches by objects that have higher collision chances than Earth typically experiences over a few decades," according to NASA's description of Torino ratings. Categories 2, 3 and 4 correspond to a "yellow" alert.
"These are objects for which refinement of the orbit is of high priority," NASA says. Again, figuring out the precise orbit is likely to eliminate the risk entirely.
?This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldn?t be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets a hold of it, it just gets crazy,? Yeomans said Thursday.
The asteroid was discovered in June and rediscovered this month. Its estimated size has been inferred from its brightness, which assumes that its reflectivity is similar to other asteroids that have been observed. At about 1,320 feet in length, it would have about 1,600 megatons of energy, Yeomans said.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6751433/
1in45? Thats pretty damn small in cosmic terms. Too bad we have lots of waiting to do.