Are we in for a shock in Iraq?

[MetalMilitia]

The US Errand boy Allawi and the US population may be in for quite a shock when the results come in from Iraq...

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Partial results from Sunday's election suggest that U.S.-backed Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's coalition is being roundly defeated by a list with the backing of Iraq's senior Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al- Sistani, diminishing Allawi's chances of retaining his post in the next government.

Sharif Ali bin Hussein, head of the Constitutional Monarchy Party, likened the vote outcome to a "Sistani tsunami" that would shake the nation.

"Americans are in for a shock," he said, adding that one day they would realize, "We've got 150,000 troops here protecting a country that's extremely friendly to Iran, and training their troops."

The partial totals so far show the Iraqi List headed by Allawi, a secular Shiite and onetime CIA protege, trailed far behind with only 18 percent of the votes, despite an aggressive television ad campaign waged with U.S. aid. A lopsided majority of votes, 72 percent, went to the United Iraqi Alliance list, topped by a Shiite cleric who lived in Iran for many years and whose Sciri party has close ties to Iran's clerical regime. More than a third of the alliance's vote came from Baghdad, the cosmopolitan capital where Allawi had been expected to fare well.

Although the results are only from Baghdad and five southern provinces where the Shiite parties were expected to score strongly, and from only 10 percent of the country's 5,216 polling stations, the scale of the alliance's vote underscored the probability of a historic shift in the Shiites' favor from decades of Sunni minority rule in Iraq.

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http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2005/02/04/MNGSMB5MDT1.DTL

[substand]

shia controlling the country is nothing unexpected. Not only did sistani advocate for the vote, the iraqi population is 60%+ shia... that, IMO, is the reason we fought so hard to have islam as "A" source of law, rather than "THE" source, in the new constitution. We will see how it turns out.

[Dead Man Walking]

It sure is a calculated risk when you throw an area of the world that has been in turmoil for a thousand years + in a voting mode. Security for the outcome? I don't know how serious the counts are, much more their validation in the concensus. Ok, let's assume that the votes are valid and the New Government takes power. This isn't over by a long shot, a very long shot. Just wait and see how this all plays out..... :spy:

[DarkAce]

Oh well. We'll keep invading until they get it right.

[MetalMilitia]

Awww... c'mon.

With more than three million votes counted, the United Iraqi Alliance, whose leaders have close ties to Iran, was sweeping ahead of its nearest rival in the poll in Iraq. The Alliance, a largely Shia coalition cobbled together by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has won more than two-thirds of the 3.3 million votes counted so far, the election commission said yesterday.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/story.jsp?story=607944

Bush wanted 'Democracy" to prevail in Iraq? I guess a CIA lackey (Allawi) wasn't what they had in mind. Sistani and his coalition will likely enact an Islamic constitution... a far cry from US democracy.

What is he going to do if they do ultimatly elect Sistani? Overturn the elections? Have a Florida based recount? Have him and his coalition members killed?

They had an election alright, but I doubt Bush and Co. expected it to look like this.

[Dead Man Walking]

I have an uncomfortable feeling to agree with you MM. I think this is just adding fuel to the fire, if the mind set of this is proliferated. If you go back into history and the campaigns that Islam lead to over throw the Persian Empire and 2/3rds of Europe in the 7th century, leading to the Crusades, we have a great deal to be concerned about.

[DarkAce]

It's all fun and games before someone puts a jihad on you :(

[MetalMilitia]

This is turning out so well I just had a few stories to add.

Shia 'poll landslide' set to put religion at heart of Iraqi power

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1406861,00.html

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A leading contender to become Iraq's new prime minister has offered to welcome Moqtadr al-Sadr, the demagogic Shia cleric behind bloody uprisings against coalition forces, into a new government expanded to include those who boycotted the election.

Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a moderate Shia whose United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) list is certain to top last weekend's poll, told The Telegraph that Sadr, wanted for alleged involvement in the hacking to death of a fellow cleric, was "a good person" who could play a constructive role in the new Iraq.

"Moqtadr Sadr's father was killed by Saddam Hussein," he said. "He has a large number of followers. We can involve them. If they are not killers, and if we have no evidence against them, then we can give them a chance to share in the political process."

His comments show the lengths to which Iraq's likely new leaders are prepared to go in order to divide the insurgency and marginalise its most fanatical elements. Last spring, American spokesmen were insisting that Sadr, whose rebel Mahdi army has killed British and American troops, be "killed or captured". Sadr, who on Friday called for all coalition troops to be withdrawn, also has ties with figures in Iran who might welcome failure in Iraq.

http://news.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&xml=/news/2005/02/06/wirq06.xml

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Smooth GWB - smooth. I'm sure the better it goes, the more we will hear about "terror in the homeland" to take our simple minds off the situation in Iraq.

[playmaker88]

If you go back into history and the campaigns that Islam lead to over throw the Persian Empire and 2/3rds of Europe in the 7th century, leading to the Crusades, we have a great deal to be concerned about.

You give the Iraqi people democracy and they vote for who they want. They vote for a religion-based leadership, they get a religion based leadership. Wasn't this all supposed to be about the Iraqi people? After the lack of WMDs found wasn't the acceptance for invasion that the evil dictator would be replaced for the benefit of the people of Iraq because that was what they wanted and that they would get to decide their future. It seems they are doing just that. Good luck to them.

As for 14 centuries ago, even the most cynical, paranoia-fuelled individual must realise that these people have moved on from then, lets hope that the recent successes of right-wing parties all over Europe are not a prelude to another Napoleon, Hitler or British Empire on a European-wide scale... (Much more recent in history but I'm sure much further from the forefront of your minds). I'm sure the other Middle-Eastern countries view present day USA in much the same light.

Are you saying democracy is okay if they vote the right way. We all know that GWB 'wants to have his cake and eat it'. Life isn't that SIMPLE George.

[Dead Man Walking]

It is not a Failure, is a lack of understanding from what the people fighting this Jihad is all about.... We are not fighting the Iraqi's, we are fighting a mindset that has existed for more than a 1000 years!! Insurgents from across the Middle East are converging upon the soil of Iraq. I don't know enough about Islam to post a definitive thought about what is desired from those folks, but I know enough to say that the intent is about conquering the world and instilling their belief system across the planet. This Will Not Happen... So what is left? I say Fight to the last hill.. The Spanish did it in the Crusades, and now it is our turn,, Europe has buried its Swords in any attempt to achieve Peace. Now they are at the whim of a group that would bring fear and devastation to their people. The war was escalated after we took Baghdad and captured Saddam, now the rebels come from all over the Middle East to fight to keep their form of Terror alive... This is going to be a hard time in the history of Humanity

[Godsgifttomankind]

Sometimes it is hard to recognize the movement of history, it is even harder to hope that something good will come out of so much violence and death. The European conflict has shown that it is possible given enough time, the same will be the case of the middle east. There is no quick fix, people have to choose to be a part of a system that will look after the rights of individuals. Iraqi people have just as much right to elect who they want and learn from their mistakes, it is by falling down that we learn to take care in our walk. These areas will rise in time to be great examples to the rest of the world but in the mean time a price will be paid to reach that point.

There was never any opportunity of the west getting the type of democratic system that they desired in Iraq but that is the case with democracy, the people get what they vote for.

[Chris4334]

These areas will rise in time to be great examples to the rest of the world but in the mean time a price will be paid to reach that point.

I don't see how you can see any great progress in history. Every time we think we are on an unstoppable run towards progress there is a catastrophe of some kind - usually instigated by humans.

And as a second point, should we really let Iraq "fall on its own" so it can learn a lesson? Do the people who will die for that lesson count for anything? This is why we have schools....so people don't have to "fall" to learn what others have already learned the hard way.

[Godsgifttomankind]

I don't see how you can see any great progress in history. Every time we think we are on an unstoppable run towards progress there is a catastrophe of some kind - usually instigated by humans.

Within the last hundred years Europe was the central arena for two world wars, the first saw the destruction of despotic Rulers and out of the ruins new systems of leadership formed many of which were not quite as corrupt as the first and that lead to the second war which brought an end to those leaders and placed a desire within those that survived to work towards a better system. It is that desire that has lead to the Europe that we see today which is working towards mutual cooperation. The first world war also saw the end of the Ottoman Empire and it's division into different countries followed shortly by the fall of the Caliphate and the formation of Turkey governed by the people. People have to experience things in order to choose what is best and that includes being there when the destruction of what ever is holding then back happens.


And as a second point, should we really let Iraq "fall on its own" so it can learn a lesson? Do the people who will die for that lesson count for anything? This is why we have schools....so people don't have to "fall" to learn what others have already learned the hard way.

We do not have any choice in the matter of falling, your father made mistakes when he was growing up and of course as most parents do, did what ever he could to protect you from making the same mistakes. Do you always listen to your father and learn from his mistakes or do you choose to ignore his guidance and make your own mistakes?
School is about being educated and making people aware of choices and possible solutions and is always followed up by practical application of the things that we learned in school. Someone can tell us and show us about things that have happened int the past and the best way to do things but until we have actually gone out and done something and made mistakes doing it we have not yet understood that which we were taught.

It is Experience that conditions us and makes us who we are and everyone has to put in the time to get to this point, it is not something that can be gained just hanging out with someone that has already been through the experience. Maybe in the future science will show us how this can be done but for the present we are limited by that which we do ourselves.

[Chris4334]

the best way to do things but until we have actually gone out and done something and made mistakes doing it we have not yet understood that which we were taught.

In other words, we are all doomed to repeat the past. If each of us had to learn the lessons of every generation behind us - while also looking for new lessons for our "progress" - can you imagine what we would be like? Imagine learning - again - what socrates wrote about existence, what Shakespeare wrote about love, what Einstein wrote about physic etc., etc., School teaches us lessons, keeps us from making many of the mistakes of the past. If you are suggesting an uneducated individual is just as likely to avoid historical mistakes as an educated one, I'm afraid I have nothing else to say.

Of course a lot of people disregard history; that's why rape, murder, exploitation of all kinds, racism, and war continue to haunt our lives. So long as a single person decides to "test history," we are doomed to repeat it. Therefore, no progress.

[Godsgifttomankind]

Hello Chris and thank-you for your reply,


In other words, we are all doomed to repeat the past. If each of us had to learn the lessons of every generation behind us - while also looking for new lessons for our "progress" - can you imagine what we would be like? Imagine learning - again - what socrates wrote about existence, what Shakespeare wrote about love, what Einstein wrote about physic etc., etc., School teaches us lessons, keeps us from making many of the mistakes of the past. If you are suggesting an uneducated individual is just as likely to avoid historical mistakes as an educated one, I'm afraid I have nothing else to say.

Of course a lot of people disregard history; that's why rape, murder, exploitation of all kinds, racism, and war continue to haunt our lives. So long as a single person decides to "test history," we are doomed to repeat it. Therefore, no progress.

Yes, in some instances we do have to learn again many things that previous generations have experienced in one form or another. We do however have the choice of listening and learning from earlier examples and in many many cases we do gain from the experiences of the past and progress in our understanding but the pace of progress is dependent upon our ability to listen and understand. Every one of the Holy Books that exist in the world tell the story of man's failure to learn from previous mistakes and repeat the same mistakes over and over again. The Koran, the Holy Book of the people that we are speaking about lays out in very clear language the repetitious corruption of the word of God by the people and their failure to keep from being corrupted and that corruption is due to the failure of the people to read and understand that which is written but instead choose to follow as if they were cattle the teachings of corrupt leaders. It tells of a time when the people of Islam will have become so corrupt that it will be themselves that will cause that which is most sacred to them to be destroyed. If you like I could quote it as it is written but the point is that history is full of man making the same mistake over and over again. A history that traces back to the beginning of time, with the repetitious rise and fall of societies; cycles of the seasons of men, birth in the early spring and finishing with total destruction in the winter. The only difference is that as time goes on the cycles become longer as man evolves in understanding. There is one very positive point to this is that at the end of every winter comes forth a new spring with all the vibrant colors that were there the spring before but in greater abundance.

[2cool4stats]

Kind of makes you think of the countless complications Bush supporters failed to foresee in their elected leader's decision. They would be almost as responsible as Bush himself if their troops are to stay for another few decades or so due to a potential civil war outbreak in that region. America is bound to this war and all its complications accept it or not.

[Godsgifttomankind]

Hello 2cool4stats,

The greatest weapon that Bush could have used against Iraq is the Koran but of course he would never choose or want to teach people how to read the Koran and that is why he is considered an Infidel. He chooses to use guns and bombs when words of wisdom taken from the very book that the people claim to follow would have sufficed. When you go to war your greatest strength is your opponents greatest weakness and in most cases it is also their greatest strength.

The strength and fight of the people of Iraq is based upon their understanding of the words of Mohammed and Bush finds his strength in the words of Christ and yet they both have forsaken the basic teachings. For the first words of the Koran are READ and the word from Christ was LISTEN and yet the leaders of Iraq have not read and Mr. Bush clearly has failed to listen.

Was this event preventable? Highly unlikely but it can be well understood for those that wish to look.

[Chris4334]

The Iraq that Saddam led was secular when compared to other states like Iran. Saddam of course fed his clerics what they wanted, but he by no means was a devout follower himself. Therefore, even if we HAD chosen to have a Koran/Bible-study with the guy, it wouldn't have been effective.

[HorrorReporter]

Just remember...when the constitution was written, early politicians made sure blacks and women could not vote or own property...We came a long way. They, too, may have a distance to travel...
But...
it's beginning.

www.horror-report.com
All the news Unfit to Print

[MetalMilitia]

It's been buggin me - stuff from the SOTU, so I think I'll rant if off in here. Pick it apart if you wish.

"In the three and a half years since September the 11th, 2001, we've taken unprecedented actions to protect Americans."

He still won't admit Iraq had nothing to do with 911.

"The al Qaeda terror network that attacked our country still has leaders, but many of its top commanders have been removed."

Which ones? The ones backed by Saudi Oil money that we won't acknowlege? THe Bin Laden family? The Carlyle group?

"There are still governments that sponsor and harbor terrorists, but their number has declined."

Maybe we should look at Saudi Arabia and Israel - I don't care if they are our allies.

"There are still regimes seeking weapons of mass destruction, but no longer without attention and without consequence."

Of course they want Weapons of Mass Destruction. Look what you do to countries WITHOUT WMD's

"The United States has no right, no desire and no intention to impose our form of government on anyone else."

Haha... Anymore... I guess spreading to to 25 million other people may have changed his mind. They voted, they voted to back an Islamic party, and are pushing for an Islamic based constitution. They didn't vote for Allawi the US puppet, or the invading - not liberating force.One election does not a democracy make.

That is one of the main differences between us and our enemies. They seek to impose and expand an empire of oppression, in which a tiny group of brutal, self-appointed rulers control every aspect of every life.

...

Our aim is to build and preserve a community of free and independent nations, with governments that answer to their citizens and reflect their own cultures.

So if in 2 years, Iraq wanted to split into 20 different countries - because it is a democracy, we would let them?

And because democracies respect their own people and their neighbors, the advance of freedom will lead to peace.

Not until you unfuck the biased ME policy.

We are witnessing landmark events in the history of liberty. And in the coming years, we will add to that story.

If you have more than 200,000 troops, declare martial law, ban automobiles, impose a dusk-to-dawn curfew and keep the candidates' names secret, then 15,000 to 20,000 insurgents cannot stop you from having an election. It is the third temporary government since the U.S. invasion. The United States appointed the first two; this one, at least, was chosen by the Iraqi people - and if the results stay consistant - it won't exactly be "US Friendly"

"To promote this democracy, I will ask Congress for $350 million to support Palestinian political, economic and security reforms."

Grand Total- $84,854,827,200 = Total Benefits per Israeli $14,630. Total U.S. aid to Israel is approximately one-third of the American foreign-aid budget, even though Israel comprises just .001 percent of the world's population and already has one of the world's higher per capita incomes. It's not exactly hard to see who we favor in that region - we find the Israeils, sell them military equipment, and then tell the world we wanna help the Palestinians with $350 mil support?

"To promote peace in the broader Middle East, we must confront regimes that continue to harbor terrorists and pursue weapons of mass murder."

Which is why I never understood flying the Bin ladens out of the coutry on September 13th. Which is why I don't understand why 28 pages of intelligence is BLACKED OUT OR CENSORED - and most experts agree it all deals with Saudi Arabia. Where do you think Bin Laden got his money? You honestly expect me to beleive that it was a coencidence that the Bush and Bin Ladens are old family friends, and George H.W. Bush was meeting with a Bin Laden the morning of the september 11th attacks? I never used to scream "conspiracy" - and I still wont. I'll call it "guilty silence".

"We are working with European allies to make clear to the Iranian regime that it must give up its uranium enrichment program and any plutonium reprocessing and end its support for terror."

That's a lie. The EU - Germany, France... Britain, are "working" (aactual discussion) with them. All we do is threaten them and accuse them like we did Iraq. So far there is no evidence that says they ARE working on nuclear weapons. They have stated repetedly they are trying to make a civilian power plant - I'm sure they're about as guilty as the Iraqis.

"Our generational commitment to the advance of freedom, especially in the Middle East, is now being tested and honored in Iraq. That country is a vital front in the war on terror, which is why the terrorists have chosen to make a stand there.

Which is why Iraq is the New Terror Breeding Ground (http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A7460-2005Jan13?language=printer) Even if there was a terror base - the nasty nasties - all we did by killing innocent civilians was give people more of a reason to hate / fear the US.

"The victory of freedom in Iraq will strengthen a new ally in the war on terror, inspire democratic reformers from Damascus to Tehran, bring more hope and progress to a troubled region, and thereby lift a terrible threat from the lives of our children and grandchildren.

I think he said this before he realized he forgot to have the elections rigged. I don't think he would have made the same comments had he seen the recent tally - showing Sistani out in the lead - with people pushing for an islamic constitution. Maybe he would, he is pretty stupid.

"We will not set an artificial timetable for leaving Iraq, because that would embolden the terrorists and make them believe they can wait us out."

It's for the sake of the Americans over there - a time table and exit strategy WOULD be a nice part of a war plan, but I guess thats asking too much.

[stewey]

If the Iraqi leader who is elected tells us to go home, I say go home. If they wish to break into 50 different nations, I say let them.

However, I do agree with Bush that giving an artificial timetable is not a good idea. If he says 6 months, then insurgents will just wait 6 1/2 months. Best to do it gradually, replacing our military with Iraqi trained military.