Tropical Storms and Hurricanes 2005

[RavenWhitefang]

EL SALVADOR -- The season's first tropical storm has formed in the Pacific. The system was upgraded Tuesday night to Tropical Storm Adrian. There is a possibility that it could cross Central America and head toward the Bahamas within the next five days.




000 WTPZ31 KNHC 190838 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005
...ADRIAN MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES...350 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.
ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF ADRIAN VERY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...11.6 N... 91.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM PDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

The NOAA site (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP1+shtml/190228.shtml)

Everyone get ready, this seasons storms has already started so stock up on the duct tape and plywood ~.^

[palex911]

this is an unusally storm.. it is headed north east here is a link

http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/local/11671048.htm

[palex911]

el salvador never hit by a hurricane.... here is the link

http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/news/article.adp?id=20050519154809990001

[CrystalSword]

This is very unusual. While El Salvador did get pounded by Mitch in '98, Mitch was only considered a tropical storm after passing the mountains. This baby's chargin right through El Salvador. Last I checked, Hurricane Adrian had sustained winds of 85 mph with gusts up to 105 mph. I mean this is crazy, the season hasn't even officially started yet......

[CrystalSword]

Well, the brunt of the storm is over in El Salvador. Now a TD, but over Honduras. Still dumping tons of rain though.

Latest link on the story......http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/05/20/adrian.reut/index.html

[restin]

The main thing about hurricane preparedness, that no one seems to mention, is getting relief from the maddening heat and humidity. When power goes off, be ready. Great if you have a generator to run a fan..we did that 3 weeks last year...a fan and the TV and you'r livin in high cotton. I've also got a collection of battery operated fans that I've tested to see which really work and which don't. They helped when we ran out of gas for the generator. Florida is opposite of up north. We have it just great all winter, but hibernate the three months of summer.

[palex911]

i have been watching tropical storms for a long time... i tracked hurricane mitch in 1998... mitch was a caribbean storm that went over honduras first..... ummm... this is the first full blown pacific storm that ever hit the beaches of el salvadora

[CrystalSword]

Looks like we are going to be in for a rough ride this year...somewhat like last year. We've already had one odd storm this year. First hurricane to hit El Salvador directly! In all of history too! We'll just have to see what this season has in store...

Link to predicted '05 season...http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/05/16/hurricane.outlook/

[DmoneyCustoms]

Sounds like a serious climate change may be on its way considering all the wild world wide weather which is breaking records everywhere this hurricane season I think will be one of the worst from what we have seen so far.

I dont think alot of people are prepared for such climate change. Good thread BTW... :2thumbs:

[Mirazh]

I heard we had so many storms last year was because the ocean was one degree warmer than usual.

One point I was without power for several days so I decided to get a generator.. when I came back the power was on. heh Looks like I may get to use it this year.

[Dead Man Walking]

From my investigations I have found that there have been 4 storms that have impacted Guatemala and the near by coast in the past few decades. Here are a couple of views of their paths...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/1982/PAUL/track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/1997/ANDRES/track.gif

There should be a couple more as many folks have said there has been some violent weather on the coastlines before... I just can't find a record of them to date...

[Mirazh]

'Very active' hurricane season forecast

(CNN) -- On the eve the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters at Colorado State University predicted it would be "very active" with 15 named tropical storms and eight hurricanes.

In a report released Tuesday, CSU's Tropical Meteorology Project (TMP) forecast half of those hurricanes will develop into major hurricanes ranked as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane strength.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/05/31/csu.hurricane.outlook/index.html

[RavenWhitefang]

Tropical storm Arlene ushered in the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season Thursday, brewing up winds of about 65 kilometres an hour off the coast of western Cuba.The storm is poised to enter the Gulf of Mexico Friday, and people in the U.S. from Florida to Louisiana are being warned to stay alert for weather updates.

Arlene is the first named storm system of the year, with these other names waiting in the wings to become everything from tropical depressions to full-force hurricanes: Bret, Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katrina, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, Stan, Tammy, Vince and Wilma.

To the Above story (http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2005/06/09/tropical-storm050609.html)

This is an Atlantic storm, it is the first of the season for this side of the world.

To the Noaa site (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)

[rynprov]

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/06/11/tropical.storm.arlene/index.html

http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2005/WEATHER/06/11/tropical.storm.arlene/story.arlene.1.jpg

http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/interactive/weather/0506/supersize.arlene.path/cone10am.gif

[rynprov]

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/06/11/arlene.ap/index.html

Tropical Storm Arlene made landfall around 3:00pm - 4:00pm EDT (19:00-20:00 GMT). It didn't make it into a hurricane.


The first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season had threatened to strengthen to a hurricane but had sustained wind of only about 60 mph (about 100 km/h) when it made landfall at around between 3 p.m. and 4 p.m. ET, just west of Pensacola.

http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/interactive/weather/0506/popup.arlene.path/popup.arlene.sat.4.pm.jpg

[RavenWhitefang]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1000 AM HST SUN JUN 12 2005 FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180 Isolated clusters of moderate convection are located far south of the main Hawaiian Islands. Strong upper level westerly winds do not favor any significant development within this area. No Tropical Cyclones are expected through early Tuesday morning.


NOAA Site (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/)

[mysticalzoe]

Damn, and my husband and I are planning on our vacation to jamaica this year, well next month do they make any predictions about next month, if there are goignt o be any tropical storm or hurricanes??? I was looking forward to my vacation once a year from the kids!

please let me know!!

Thanks,

Jessica

[RavenWhitefang]

if anything pops up will let you know. have been checking out the noaa site daily for any updates. will post them here. :D

[mysticalzoe]

Thank you kindly!!! :headbang:

[CrystalSword]

NOAA Increases Hurricane Expectancy for the '05 Season

From the Climate Prediction Center Website:
NOAA is calling for a 95% to 100% chance of an above-normal 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, according to a consensus of scientists at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and National Hurricane Center (NHC). This forecast reflects NOAA’s highest confidence of an above-normal hurricane season since their outlooks began in August 1998.

The updated outlook calls for an extremely active season, with an expected seasonal total of 18-21 tropical storms (mean is 10), with 9-11 becoming hurricanes (mean is 6), and 5-7 of these becoming major hurricanes (mean is 2-3). The likely range of the ACE index for the season as a whole is 180%-270% of the median.

The predicted seasonal totals include the considerable activity that has already occurred prior to this update (7 tropical storms and 2 major hurricanes). Therefore, for the remainder of the season, we expect an additional 11-14 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes. The expected ACE range during August-November is 110%-200% of the median. These very high levels of activity are comparable to those seen during August-November 2003 and 2004. Given the forecast that the remainder of the season will be very active, it is imperative that residents and government officials in hurricane-vulnerable communities have a hurricane preparedness plan in place.

The predicted nearly 100% chance of an above-normal season is higher than the 70% likelihood indicated in NOAA’s pre-season outlook issued May 16th. This increased certainty reflects the fact that the atmospheric and oceanic conditions favoring hurricane formation that were predicted in May are now in place. These conditions, combined with the high levels of activity already seen, make an above-normal season nearly certain.

The story also somewhat explains why this is a "hyperactive" season, the main being that we on the active side the multi-decadal fluctation.

Full story: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.html