How Many More Named Tropical Cyclones in '05?

[CrystalSword]

We've gone a long way from Arlene in June to the present day Rita. This type of season, where all the required conditions are in place to create strong hurricanes, only happens a few times even during the multi-decadal cycle. So I ask: How many more named cyclones will there be in the Atlantic Basin in 2005?

[HorrorReporter]

I actually think this signifies a big change for future years. We are going to be stuck in a pattern of VERY active storms...Winter and summer. watch for some big blizzards this winter, I predict..


http://SCHMUCKRAKER.COM/

[Mezurashi]

perhaps it's a coincidence, perhaps there is something to the myths, but there is a lot of observable crap hitting all sorts of fans around us nature wise. The Sun is acting up during solar minimum, the last two El Nino's have been unusual (tried to find a link for this, couldn't so I might have my head up my butt here), the Ozone Hole above Antarctica keeps disappearing and reappearing (kind of like the German Helmet Wearing Snake in Eden, rofl), we're into a 'Hurricane Cycle' in the Atlantic and there's been more and more seismic and volcanic events (at least, according to the newsies and various environmental group propogandists).

This year I 'feel' (or believe, though I dislike that word) that Rita is as bad as it's gonna get - but there may be one or two more 'almost-Rita's' for us to deal with (remember 2004? 4 hit Florida and we joked it was retribution on all those who voted GWBush in for asecond term). The Pacific Typhoons might produce one more Big Killer but not likely, just a few more severe ones.

HR hit the nail on the head as far as the upcoming winter is concerned. Though I am not a meterologist it doesn't take much brains or imagination to project the stuff happening now having 'echoes' which will affect the next seasonal shifts. Plus if things go as trended then we should have a more severe winter just because we have been for past decade or so (but the jury's still out as to Why this is, some say Hotter Earth, some say Colder). Thus I wouldn't be surprised to see Cairo closed down from late October snowstorms, or even Nairobi.

and, because we're talking weather projections, I might as well admit my head's up my ass because the most likely outcome is one I haven't predicted. so I fully expect to be wrong, wrong, wrong about this.

[Wednesday]

It doesnt have to be a Katrina or a Rita. Tropical Storm Allison killed 22 people in Houston, Texas in 2001.

Was just a little tropical storm, no one was even alarmed until the water started rising.

[Sammy56]

I think we are likely to have several more named storms this season. There is still two months left in the hurricane season and conditions are still ripe for more hurricanes to form. Now, that does not necessarily mean we will see more storms like Katrina, or at least, I hope we don't.


watch for some big blizzards this winter
I hope so. I love snow, yet we rarely get a snowstorm here. It only snowed once last year here in central Oklahoma. Of course, it was not predicted. As a matter of fact it was supposed to be warm and sunny that day, but by 11:00 we had like 5" of snow on the ground. My friends and I had a huge snowball fight at lunch in the courtyard of our school. Good memories...

[CrystalSword]

It doesnt have to be a Katrina or a Rita. Tropical Storm Allison killed 22 people in Houston, Texas in 2001.

You're right about that. Allison was the only TS ever to have it's name retired. The name of this thread is how many more named tropical cyclones are we going to see this year. They could be like Lee this year, just briefly hit tropical storm strength and die 12 hours later. On the flip side, though, nothing is preventing another Katrina or Rita.

Mez, you also have a good point. The Sun is behaving strangely. One website I once saw said that because cosmic particles are beginning to enter the solar system at a rapidly increasing rate, the Sun will have more fuel to fuse, and this type of solar behavior is going to become worse for several more years. If Sol's energy output increases even by a half of a percent, the Earth could receive trillions upon trillions of kilocalories in extra heat energy. I would say that would be enough to mess with our climate, considering all that extra energy is being spread even more unevenly across Earth during the day, versus the greenhouse gas global warming theory where the heat trapped would be more uniformly spread, day or night.

Also, certain ocean cycles are at a positive phase that favors hurricanes (and other weird weather), and so I would say that extremes are going to become more common in the next few years.

About the ozone hole over Antarctica, though. Due to the polar vortex at this time of year, it's been disappearing around September since CFC's were put in our atmosphere.

[CrystalSword]

There's two vigorous tropical waves now in the Atlantic that are looking favorable for development into tropical depressions. It appears that the first choice is definitely wrong, but so far no one voted for it. When one of these waves organizes into a named tropical storm, which looks to be possible in about 2 days, this thread's topic becomes invalid, so at the time when (or if) the next named tropical cyclone in the Atlantic forms, I will close this thread.

[CrystalSword]

Tropical Depression Nineteen has just formed about two hours ago. Conditions are so far favorable for intensification into a tropical storm tomorrow. While this cyclone will likely not strengthen to hurricane status due to increasing shear and increasingly northward movement, a name is still acquired. When this happens, I will close this thread and we will see what happens for the rest of the year. So far, the leading option is that we will see the first letter or two of the Greek Alphabet for storm names.

So get your vote in if you haven't done so already, as it is likely this thread will be closed sometime tomorrow.

[CrystalSword]

TD 20 formed the other day, and beat out TD 19 to the name. Tropical Storm Stan hit the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, shortly after acquiring a name. I am now closing this thread, and we'll see how far we get with the names. The voters say that we'll just get into the Greek Alphabet. We shall see.