Count Down To Armageddon

[Tired Old Man]

In seeing as how no one else posted anything about this here I go again.

Count Down To Armageddon.

BUSHEHR, Iran – Iranian and Russian nuclear technicians made final preparations to start up Iran's first reactor on Saturday after years of delays, an operation that will mark a milestone in what Tehran considers its right to produce nuclear energy.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100820/...a/iran_nuclear

I am not sure about the time difference but it is Saturday today for me. So we may have little time to discuses this. It is my understanding from news stories that if Israel is going to attack it would have to be before they power up the nuclear plant.
I thought it was going to happen on the 28th ?

[lycanox]

Didn't they have permission for this plant. As long they process the uranium in europe. And the west is allowed to count every little bit of uranium that goes in an out of the plant.

Anyway, that Israel must attack Iran before the first nuclear reactor is not absolute to the hour. Its just to point out that Israel would have to attack before Iran reaches that stage of its nuclear program.

[Tired Old Man]

Didn't they have permission for this plant. As long they process the uranium in europe. And the west is allowed to count every little bit of uranium that goes in an out of the plant.

Anyway, that Israel must attack Iran before the first nuclear reactor is not absolute to the hour. Its just to point out that Israel would have to attack before Iran reaches that stage of its nuclear program.

Give this man a cigar ! It is not absolute to the hour. That is why this is called Count Down To Armageddon. Israel says there is no way they can allow Iran to operate this plant. Okay countdown might be a little off in timing.
But once this plant is up and operating you can not destroy it without nuclear fallout. Which would not be good for Israel.
So if Israel is going to attack and destroy the plant it would have to happen very soon. Damn I was right, it is a countdown to Armageddon. Or is it ?

IF.....If Israel attacks and destroys Iran's nuclear power plant before it is up and operating what will that lead to ?

Count Down To Armageddon ?

[Raptor Witness]

I would be very surprised to see a preemptive strike, without further provocation.

[Ningishiddza]

In seeing as how no one else posted anything about this here I go again.

It's a non-event.

It is my understanding from news stories that if Israel is going to attack it would have to be before they power up the nuclear plant.

No, it would have to be when US Military Advisors shut down Iranian radars for repair and redirected other radars to search the zones away from the Persian Gulf.

Oh, yeah, that's right, the US no longer has Military Advisors in Iran. Well, too bad for Israel. That's right, US Military Advisors in Iraq shut down radars and redirected others to ping on the Iraqi-Iranian border leaving a nice wide unprotected flight path for the Israelis to attack through.

Oh, and the physics thing. Israeli F-16s will have to re-fuel in-flight twice, once before reaching Iranian airspace (over the Persian Gulf or Arabian Sea) and once after leaving Iranian airspace.

Yeah, physics, it's the law.

[Tired Old Man]

I would be very surprised to see a preemptive strike, without further provocation.

The provocation would be the fact that the nuclear plant is up and running. Israel can not attack after this without risking fallout. Based on current world opinion I'll agree that an attack is unlikely. But then again we have to go with Never Again. Israel is looking at the possibility that Iran could have the power to wipe them out in time.

It's a non-event.

Cough .....Cough

[pico]

I would think something will happen in the next couple of days, or it won't take place until after Obama is replaced. I would think the Israelis would use something other than F-16 fighters. Do they not have anything better in their arsenal? 2 engined jets would be a much better choice. I wonder if the US has ever transferred stealth fighters to the Israelis secretly, as perhaps they would minimize losses the Israelis will surely take if such a strike were to take place. Perhaps something like cruise missles would be the way to go.

Okay... I went and looked up Israeli capabilities. According to Wikipedia, they have approx 25 F-15E strike fighters, as well as anywhere from 3-5 C-130 ariel refueling tankers. This is plenty enough to get the job done. They are also planning to take 20 F-35 fighters... not sure the status of this program, with an option to take up to 70. The F-15 is a far superior fighter to the F-16, and having the Strike Eagle version with a full squadron would be ample to do major damage against Iranian assets, IMO.

[Abyssal_Worm]

I would think something will happen in the next couple of days, or it won't take place until after Obama is replaced. I would think the Israelis would use something other than F-16 fighters. Do they not have anything better in their arsenal? 2 engined jets would be a much better choice. I wonder if the US has ever transferred stealth fighters to the Israelis secretly, as perhaps they would minimize losses the Israelis will surely take if such a strike were to take place. Perhaps something like cruise missles would be the way to go.

The US would not hand over Stealth technology to the Israelis out of fear that they might sell it on the black market. I may be wrong, but I don't believe we have even shared that technology with the British.

Its not a question of stealth as it is a question of fuel. In order to make the trip they are going to have to refuel once in order to reach the target and and then refuel again in order to make it back to Israel. No, if they have to attack, they are going to have to use decidedly nastier aspects of their arsenal in order to get the job done. Even then, all it is going to do is create a far worse mess than they re already in right now.

[Tired Old Man]

I would think something will happen in the next couple of days, or it won't take place until after Obama is replaced. I would think the Israelis would use something other than F-16 fighters. Do they not have anything better in their arsenal? 2 engined jets would be a much better choice. I wonder if the US has ever transferred stealth fighters to the Israelis secretly, as perhaps they would minimize losses the Israelis will surely take if such a strike were to take place. Perhaps something like cruise missles would be the way to go.

Okay... I went and looked up Israeli capabilities. According to Wikipedia, they have approx 25 F-15E strike fighters, as well as anywhere from 3-5 C-130 ariel refueling tankers. This is plenty enough to get the job done. They are also planning to take 20 F-35 fighters... not sure the status of this program, with an option to take up to 70. The F-15 is a far superior fighter to the F-16, and having the Strike Eagle version with a full squadron would be ample to do major damage against Iranian assets, IMO.

The US would not hand over Stealth technology to the Israelis out of fear that they might sell it on the black market. I may be wrong, but I don't believe we have even shared that technology with the British.

Its not a question of stealth as it is a question of fuel. In order to make the trip they are going to have to refuel once in order to reach the target and and then refuel again in order to make it back to Israel. No, if they have to attack, they are going to have to use decidedly nastier aspects of their arsenal in order to get the job done. Even then, all it is going to do is create a far worse mess than they re already in right now.

Are you people on drugs ? This has little or nothing to do with Obama . Israel is the one who will make a choice here. Stand down and see what happens which in my opinion is the way to go or.....attack before being attacked when the last attack is the last attack.

Count Down......

[pico]

All I meant was that if it does not happen in the next few days, they will hold out until a change in the US admin occurs and hope the US will do the dirty work for them. I honestly think they will act on their own, with the US giving an encouraging wink but not acting. I do not think the Obama Administration has the gumption for a big war with Iran, and it would be awfully costly both in economic woes and lives lost.

I think Israel has the resources to indeed pull this off. I just hope they hit the target and Iran backs down.... but doubt that will be the case.

As for the drugs, I am on my 2nd 12 ounce can of beer... so alcohol is definitely in my system... just not at the stupid level yet.

I think I should add that just because Iran can fuel a reactor does not mean they are ready to launch nuclear weapons at Israel... and if they did, they themselves would likely be cleared off the planet by a US and Israeli retaliatory strike.

[Ningishiddza]

The provocation would be the fact that the nuclear plant is up and running. Israel can not attack after this without risking fallout. Based on current world opinion I'll agree that an attack is unlikely. But then again we have to go with Never Again. Israel is looking at the possibility that Iran could have the power to wipe them out in time.

Cough .....Cough

This is exactly why non-military people have their head up their asses all the time:



It's monsoon season. You want to nuke the dual reactors at Bushwehr?

Be my guest. Burning uranium will float up into the air just like at Chernobyl and it will blow right over the Gulf States and contaminate the UAE, and Saudi Arabia and Jordan and guess who? Oh, yeah, Israel.

For those whose Nuclear Weapons IQ is 0 you don't need nuclear reactors to produce nuclear weapons. You just need uranium and Iran has been sitting on tons of it for 4.5 Billion years.

I could train blind orang-u-tans to build and assemble a nuclear device faster than the Iranians, who supposedly have been building a nuclear device since 2003. Well, it only takes 6 months.

Okay... I went and looked up Israeli capabilities. According to Wikipedia, they have approx 25 F-15E strike fighters, as well as anywhere from 3-5 C-130 ariel refueling tankers. This is plenty enough to get the job done. They are also planning to take 20 F-35 fighters... not sure the status of this program, with an option to take up to 70. The F-15 is a far superior fighter to the F-16, and having the Strike Eagle version with a full squadron would be ample to do major damage against Iranian assets, IMO.

Your first mistake was using pukipedia.

Those F-15s for Israel are minus some of the whiz bang gadgets the US F-15 has. The combat radius is only 790 miles (don't confuse combat radius with range).

You want to guess the range from Israel to Bushwehr? Don't forget to include enough fuel to turn and burn to avoid SAMs and air-to-airs.

It will take a minimum of 8 aircraft per target, plus additional aircraft for air cover since the F-15I can only carry 4 Python air-to-air missiles.

Two targets, about 32 aircraft. And you're going to refuel with 5 KC-130s?

Um, okay, that'll be real interesting. I guess US ships can pick up the survivors as they ditch in the Persian Gulf.

[pico]

well, according to the site I mentioned, they have 24-25 F-15E, not 32. I have seen a single tanker refuel 5 planes before, so I figured 3-5 tankers would be adequate... but I do not try to claim to be an aviator nor general.

I would think destroying the reactor before it is fueled would prevent an environmental disaster. As far as Israel is concerned, as long as the winds are blowing from the west, the radiation can fall elsewhere long before it reaches them on the flip side.

If I remember, the range of an f-15 is much longer than what you are claiming. They can be outfitted with drop tanks, and can get refueled on the way home.

[hobobone]

Im sure the US and the U.N. are doing everything they can to try to assure Israel that Iran will not be building any nuclear weapons. That being said Israel isnt stupid.

Im not sure that Israel needs to take out the reactor.. A well coordinated strike could take out their conventional power plants. A country without power suffers. Example Iraq. A strike like this would also bring in the U.N. However it could also lead to full out war.

If Israel felt threatened enough i wouldnt rule out anything. They reclaimed their country through forms of terrorism. Im not so sure they would rule out the accidental killing of some of their own people to take Iran out of the equation.

However could it be that the powers that control this globe love nothing more than to strike fear into the hearts of man, through war and the rumor of war. Fear is one of the greatest population manipulators. It could be that the leaders of most all of the nations in the U.N. are sitting smoking big cigars, discussing the next way to manipulate more money from the poor of each nation.

[Prometheus]

I could train blind orang-u-tans to build and assemble a nuclear device faster than the Iranians

OK, so please demonstrate. We'll need more than just the theory here, a bloke called Einstein and a gal called Curie are ahead of you there (and they didn't have any Orangatans so you've got a clear advantage here).

Let's see. Materials, delivery weight, yeild, the chosen process for ignition, your preferred trigger and most importantly ---- your amazing technique for producing weapons grade material from yellow cake...

My friend Boris above, from Borneo, thinks you're a wanker.


-

[SuperDig]

Are you people on drugs ? This has little or nothing to do with Obama . Israel is the one who will make a choice here. Stand down and see what happens which in my opinion is the way to go or.....attack before being attacked when the last attack is the last attack.

Count Down......

No ... actually, are you on drugs? This has everything to do with Obama.

Did you not hear about the sanction vote last week in Congress? It was 400-11 in favor of the sanctions. We did the exact same thing to Iraq. Israel knows that if they should ever get into a bad situation with any country; the U.S. will be involved. Fundamental Christians actually believe that if they protect Israel, return Israel to the jews, and cross their fingers ........ Christ will come back according to Revelations. Of course, politicians are playing off this belief, and putting their own war propoganda to work. Remember ... corporate pockets become fat when we are at war. God knows our bankrupt economy would continue to decline, but hey ...... Obama's corporations would flourish!

So when you say this has nothing to do with Obama, think of the United States implications. The United States cannot resist an opportunity such as this. You are correct in one point ..... this is a countdown to WW III.

[Ningishiddza]

OK, so please demonstrate.

It's called hyperbole.

The US designed, built and tested a uranium based double-gun device in 6 months. So did India. It took Pakistan a little over 7 months, but then that's because they couldn't decide whether to use a gun-system or spherical implosion.

It took North Korea about 14 months to design, build and test a plutonium device (which is much more difficult than using uranium).

Those of you who think Iran has nuclear weapons are just out in left field in fantasy land.

10 years from now you'll all still be frothing at the mouth screaming that Iran is going to build a nuke and Israel is going to attack Iran.

[Tired Old Man]

10 years from now you'll all still be frothing at the mouth screaming that Iran is going to build a nuke and Israel is going to attack Iran.

Thanks for the lead way. This thread is not about Iran building a nuke any day soon. But it is about Israel saying they could not/would not allow Iran to start up the nuclear power plant. Any attack would have to have happened before the plant start up. I don't know how long it takes to start up a nuclear power plant to the point that would stop Israel from attacking. I'm not even sure if Israel would go it along or could go it alone.

So I guess the question for now is Are We There Yet ? If they started fueling last Saturday how long before an attack would be out of the question.

[Reef Badlaw]

Alright, everybody's get way too philosophical here... The three players are Iran, Israel, and Russia. -With the US as top guest-star. I don't see anything happening for months. All 4 have eaten crow through the years... downplaying oaths 'n vows about this 'n that. -Which Netanyahu's political-machine will be doing over the next week or so. No big deal.

[Tired Old Man]

Alright, everybody's get way too philosophical here... The three players are Iran, Israel, and Russia. -With the US as top guest-star. I don't see anything happening for months. All 4 have eaten crow through the years... downplaying oaths 'n vows about this 'n that. -Which Netanyahu's political-machine will be doing over the next week or so. No big deal.

So I have months to stock pile food and dig my fallout shelter ?
Just picking on you, but it was fun.
I am back to what would be the date as to if Israel would attack. If Iran started loading Nuclear rods into the plant last Saturday what would be the last date they would attack.
I'll be right back I need to add to my can goods.......

[Reef Badlaw]

A virtual Pi loop-sequence of events would have to take place to shape an Armageddonal-event. The mullah's (Iranian Parliament) want Israel to attack, in my opinion. They want their own people murdered, if it came-down-to-it. A crafty foe never does what its enemy wants, or expects.

[Tired Old Man]

A virtual Pi loop-sequence of events would have to take place to shape an Armageddonal-event. The mullah's (Iranian Parliament) want Israel to attack, in my opinion. They want their own people murdered, if it came-down-to-it. A crafty foe never does what its enemy wants, or expects.

So what your saying is you have no answer to my question.

[Revelation]

The provocation would be the fact that the nuclear plant is up and running. Israel can not attack after this without risking fallout. Based on current world opinion I'll agree that an attack is unlikely. But then again we have to go with Never Again. Israel is looking at the possibility that Iran could have the power to wipe them out in time.

Cough .....Cough

the fallout risk isn't high for the israeli's as the trade winds generally flow west to east and I don't see the Israeli's getting all bent out of shape if some Afghani's and Pakistani's get radioactively contaminated and croak.

but the political ramifications could be high in such a case.

Are you people on drugs ? This has little or nothing to do with Obama . Israel is the one who will make a choice here. Stand down and see what happens which in my opinion is the way to go or.....attack before being attacked when the last attack is the last attack.

Count Down......

I have to concur with the Tired Old Man here, Israel has already publicly stated that they will not stand by and allow Iran to possess nuclear capabilities, and that they will move forward on pre-emptive attack with or without the help of the United States or any other allies. It'll be a suicide mission, but I do believe it will take place in the not so distant future.

[Ningishiddza]

This thread is not about Iran building a nuke any day soon. But it is about Israel saying they could not/would not allow Iran to start up the nuclear power plant.

Then that makes it purely an economic issue and not an issue of national security.

A nuclear reactor is not necessary to build a uranium-based weapon. A nuclear reactor is necessary to build a plutonium based weapon. The dual reactors at Bushwehr built by Siemens (a German company) are the same design as the reactors that Pakistan has. The operation of those reactors does not allow neutrons to obtain sufficient velocity to interact with U238, but does allow for the fission of U235.

Neutron capture by U238 is necessary to convert to Np239 which then converts to Pu239 by beta decay. Even if Indian gave Pakistan and Iran its nuclear waste (India has both uranium and plutonium-based nuclear weapons), neither Iran nor Pakistan have the technology to separate Pu239 from U238.

Any attack would have to have happened before the plant start up. I don't know how long it takes to start up a nuclear power plant to the point that would stop Israel from attacking. I'm not even sure if Israel would go it along or could go it alone.

So I guess the question for now is Are We There Yet ? If they started fueling last Saturday how long before an attack would be out of the question.

You can go take a cold shower, because an attack is not going to happen.

Like the Soviets/Russians, Israel never telegraphs its intentions (never means "at no time ever").

The Israelis never publicly threatened to destroy the French-built Iraqi reactor at Osiriak, nor did the Israelis engage in public debate and seed propaganda and disinformation via the web-site and their propaganda news outlets. They just simply up and did it, and of course they had massive help from the US, whose military advisors in Iraq made certain Iraqi radars were either down for maintenance or pointed at the Iranian border.

The Israelis never publicly threatened to destroy the missile assembly facility in Syria, nor did the Israelis engage in public debate and seed propaganda and disinformation via the web-site and their propaganda news outlets. They just simply up and did it, and of course they had massive help from the US, who forced the Iraqis and Turks to open their air-space to the Israelis and the US jammed Syrian radars at the border.

I could cite a dozen other examples, but I don't have time. Suffice to say that because Israel keeps yapping, it means they have no intention of doing anything.

Israel has already publicly stated that they will not stand by and allow Iran to possess nuclear capabilities

Well, then, O Wizened One, show us were Israel was publicly out-raged about Iraq's nuclear reactor and how they wouldn't stand by while Iraq possesses, um, "nuclear capabilities."

[hobobone]

the fallout risk isn't high for the israeli's as the trade winds generally flow west to east and I don't see the Israeli's getting all bent out of shape if some Afghani's and Pakistani's get radioactively contaminated and croak.

but the political ramifications could be high in such a case.



I have to concur with the Tired Old Man here, Israel has already publicly stated that they will not stand by and allow Iran to possess nuclear capabilities, and that they will move forward on pre-emptive attack with or without the help of the United States or any other allies. It'll be a suicide mission, but I do believe it will take place in the not so distant future.

Then that makes it purely an economic issue and not an issue of national security.

A nuclear reactor is not necessary to build a uranium-based weapon. A nuclear reactor is necessary to build a plutonium based weapon. The dual reactors at Bushwehr built by Siemens (a German company) are the same design as the reactors that Pakistan has. The operation of those reactors does not allow neutrons to obtain sufficient velocity to interact with U238, but does allow for the fission of U235.

Neutron capture by U238 is necessary to convert to Np239 which then converts to Pu239 by beta decay. Even if Indian gave Pakistan and Iran its nuclear waste (India has both uranium and plutonium-based nuclear weapons), neither Iran nor Pakistan have the technology to separate Pu239 from U238.



You can go take a cold shower, because an attack is not going to happen.

Like the Soviets/Russians, Israel never telegraphs its intentions (never means "at no time ever").

The Israelis never publicly threatened to destroy the French-built Iraqi reactor at Osiriak, nor did the Israelis engage in public debate and seed propaganda and disinformation via the web-site and their propaganda news outlets. They just simply up and did it, and of course they had massive help from the US, whose military advisors in Iraq made certain Iraqi radars were either down for maintenance or pointed at the Iranian border.

The Israelis never publicly threatened to destroy the missile assembly facility in Syria, nor did the Israelis engage in public debate and seed propaganda and disinformation via the web-site and their propaganda news outlets. They just simply up and did it, and of course they had massive help from the US, who forced the Iraqis and Turks to open their air-space to the Israelis and the US jammed Syrian radars at the border.

I could cite a dozen other examples, but I don't have time. Suffice to say that because Israel keeps yapping, it means they have no intention of doing anything.



Well, then, O Wizened One, show us were Israel was publicly out-raged about Iraq's nuclear reactor and how they wouldn't stand by while Iraq possesses, um, "nuclear capabilities."

You are very correct here Ning. Israel Never gives warning of an attack. They do it quietly, and when their enemy least suspects it. The only way they may deviate from that protocol is if the U.S. baited them on to attack. I dont see that happening. However if Iran was to all of a sudden start making threats and come knocking on Israels door, Well that may be a different out come.

Ning, your knowledge of Nuclear Physics is quite impressive. However my concern is not that Iran posses long range nuclear weapons. But that they aid a terrorist organization, Such as Hamas, with a radiation or dirty bomb. This takes nowhere near the brain power to build. While its success is to be debated, the fear that could be created from such a bomb, could bring Israel to the brink of war. Sometimes fear is worse than the weapon.

[Ningishiddza]

Marc Rich. That was his name. He owed over $40 Million in taxes to the IRS and the majority of that came from the oil deal he brokered between Iran and Israel. He got charged with some 50 counts of tax fraud and evasion (it was also illegal to do business with Iran). Clinton issued the pardon under pressure from US-based Jewish groups (and probably illegally received money as well).

That was like a 15-20 year oil contract (which is still operating).

Israelis are basically Soviets. The overwhelming vast majority of Israelis are from Russia, or from one of the former Soviet Republics (Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine et al), or from one of the East Bloc countries.

Naturally, they employ Soviet/Russian style military tactics and doctrine, and those are based on surprise and speed. The Soviets/Russians never telegraph their intentions either. The Berlin Uprising, the Berlin Blockade in response to Germany cutting off war reparations, the 2nd Berlin Uprising, the Polish Rebellion, Hungaria, Cuba, Cheha, Poland, Afghanistan, Kosovo, and about 2 dozen other instances they never threatened anything publicly, they just simply up and did it.

When the Soviets/Russians threaten to do something, it means they have no intention of doing it (like the Suez Incident etc etc et al), it's just talk. The Israelis are the exact same way.

For those who are insistent that Israel is going to attack Iran, let's see it. Show your work. Show us a map and show us the equations.

I'll even give you some help. I attached a basic air interdiction equation. Surely y'all can figure that out and if you can't, well then ask Mr. Wizard our esteemed physics professor (who also apparently is a Geometry Wizard) to help you.

Oh, and you people thought it was so simple.

But that they aid a terrorist organization, Such as Hamas, with a radiation or dirty bomb

No such thing, so don't worry.