With the
end of the Cold War and the collapse
of the Soviet Union,
conflict between the United States and Russia appears much less likely.
Stockpiles of nuclear warheads are being reduced on both sides and
tensions between the two countries have greatly reduced. The concerns
of political strategists have now shifted to other areas of the world.
Current fears of
nuclear war are mainly centred around India (first
test May 18, 1974, the "Smiling Buddha" test) and Pakistan (first test
May 1998), two nations whose majority religions and histories, as well
as a territorial dispute in Kashmir and mutual possession of
substantial (though probably numbered in dozens rather than thousands)
nuclear arsenals makes many extremely nervous. Both have waged several
wars over the conflict in Kashmir and the region as a whole is
considered highly volatile, with conflicts in Afghanistan and the
Middle East considerably influencing Pakistani policy, and several
assassinations of high-ranking government officials and continuing
Hindu-Muslim incidents in India heightening both national and
international tension. Recent studies undertaken by the CIA cite the
enduring Pakistani-Indian conflict as the most likely conflict
escalating into nuclear war.
In the case of
Pakistan, their unstable government and the threat of
radical Islamists seizing power and thus control over the nuclear
arsenal has raised additional fears, compounded by the fact that a
senior member of the development program, Sultan Bashiruddin Mahmood,
is a strong Taliban sympathizer.
Another
flashpoint which has analysts worried is a possible conflict
between the United States and the People's Republic of China over
Taiwan. Although economic forces have decreased the possibility of
military conflict, there remains the worry that increasing military
buildup and a move toward Taiwan independence could spin out of control.
A third potential
flashpoint lies in the Middle East, where Israel is
thought to possess on the order of between one and four hundred nuclear
warheads (although this has never been officially confirmed). Israel
has been involved in wars with its neighbors on numerous occasions, and
its small geographic size would mean that in the event of future wars
the Israeli military might have very little time to react to a future
invasion or other major threat; the situation could escalate to nuclear
warfare very quickly in some scenarios.
In addition,
there is the possibility that so-called rogue states such
as Iran, and North Korea (see North Korea nuclear weapons program) may
acquire nuclear weapons. Nuclear terrorism by non-state organisations
could well be more likely, as states possessing nuclear weapons are
susceptible to retaliation in kind. Geographically-dispersed and mobile
terrorist organizations are not so easy to discourage by the threat of
retaliation. Furthermore, while the collapse of the Soviet Union ended
the Cold War, it greatly increased the risk that former Soviet nuclear
weapons might become available on the black market.
On a more
positive note, South Africa declared after its transition
from an apartheid regime that it had in fact produced about six crude
nuclear weapons as a 'last-resort' weapon against an envisioned race
war, but that they have now been destroyed. In fact the development
laboratories (which are remarkably unsophisticated) and storage
facilities have now become a sight-seeing tour.
Glossary of Nuclear Capable Weapons
ABM : Anti-Ballistic
Missile. Missiles designed to intercept and
destroy ballistic missiles. Can also refer to the ABM treaty, signed by
Richard Nixon and Leonid Brezhnev, which halted the development and use
of such systems due to fears that such systems could counter the MAD
scenario and, thereby, increase the likelihood that an ABM protected
country would use their nuclear weapons aggressively.
ALCM : Air
Launched Cruise Missile.
Ballistic
missile
: A missile using a ballistic trajectory involving a
significant ascent and descent including suborbital and partial orbital
trajectories.
Cruise
missile
: A missile using a low altitude trajectory intended to avoid detection
by radar systems. Cruise missiles have shorter range and lower payloads
than ballistic missiles, usually, and are not known to carry MIRVs.
GLCM
: Ground
Launched Cruise Missile.
ICBM :
Intercontinental Ballistic Missile.
INF :
Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, signed in 1987, which
eliminated tactical ("battlefield") nuclear devices and GLCMs from
Europe.
MAD
: Mutual
assured destruction. The doctrine of preventing nuclear war by
creating a situation in which any use of nuclear weapons would result
in the certain destruction of both the attacker and the defender.
MIRV :
Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicles, nuclear devices carried,
usually ten or twelve at a time on a single ICBM, allowing a single
launched missile to strike a handful of targets, and allowing a few
missiles to strike several targets redundantly.
SALT
I :
Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty. A treaty signed by Richard Nixon and
Leonid Brezhnev in 1972, limiting the growth of US and Soviet missile
arsenals.
SALT
II : A
treaty designed to further limit the growth of US and Soviet missile
arsenals.
SDI :
Strategic Defense Initiative, more commonly known as Star Wars. A
system proposed by Ronald Reagan to use space-based systems to detect,
intercept and destroy ICBMs and MIRVs. Criticized for its costs, doubts
that it would be effective, and concerns that it would violate the ABM
treaty and offset MAD, it was not supported by the US Congress at that
time.
SLBM :
Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile.
SLCM :
Submarine Launched Cruise Missile.
START --
STrategic Arms Reductions Treaty : A treaty proposed by Ronald Reagan
to reduce the numbers of missiles
and warheads.
START
II : A
treaty signed by George H. W. Bush and Boris Yeltsin in January 1993
to ban the use of MIRVs.
