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Tropical Storm Emily: Southeast Faces a Close Encounter
The News - Natural Disasters
August 03, 2011
tropical storm emily hurricane watch
"Emily may be forecast to remain off the Southeast coast, but residents should not let their guard down yet."

Tropical Storm Emily is still on track to slam into Hispaniola tonight, then make a close encounter with the southeastern U.S. this weekend.

Emily is less than 12 hours from making its first landfall in Hispaniola, creating misery and threatening lives in Haiti and neighboring Dominican Republic.

After continuing to produce heavy rain across Puerto Rico this afternoon, Emily will reach southern Hispaniola early tonight as a tropical storm. The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center has more information on Emily's current position, strength and movement.

Emily has been struggling to maintain its current intensity the last few hours as it interacts with northwesterly wind shear. The latest satellite imagery shows the low level center of circulation being exposed away from the main area of thunderstorms. Therefore, the system is expected to just maintain its current intensity or it could even weaken a little before landfall.

The storm will then struggle even more as it interacts with mountains that rise to around 10,000 feet on Hispaniola and 4,000 feet on the southeastern tip of Cuba tonight into Thursday.

That mountainous terrain, however, will likely not bring about Emily's demise. Though it is certainly possible that Emily emerges north of Hispaniola as a very ragged depression.

Emily will then track into the southwestern Atlantic, where it will make its closest encounter with the southeastern U.S. this weekend.

Current Forecast Track of Emily

The future track of Emily by the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center takes the tropical storm across the northwestern Bahamas, then spares the Southeast coast from a direct hit.

A pair of storm systems set to move eastward across the U.S. should steer Emily away from the Southeast and into the open waters of the Atlantic. Emily could still intensify into a hurricane as it curves and misses the U.S.

If this scenario pans out, the worst of Emily's wind and rain would bypass the Southeast. The outer rain bands of Emily could still graze parts of the coastline depending on how close the storm tracks to land.

"At the very least, it appears that Emily will move close enough to the U.S. to produce very dangerous surf with high wave action and a high rip current risk," stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Meghan Evans.

Landfall on U.S. Soil Not Out of the Question

Emily may be forecast to remain off the Southeast coast, but residents should not let their guard down yet.

With the storm being so disorganized, it could still steer away from the current forecasted track. Storms in a weakened state tend to either continue on their current track or slip in between large islands as Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski pointed out. Therefore, should Emily continue on a westward track as it is currently moving, then it could end up posing more of a threat to Florida then first anticipated.

With the exact track of Emily for this weekend not set in stone, all residents along the Southeast coast should check back with AccuWeather.com for the latest updates.

 
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