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Powerful Category 4 Typhoon Ma-on is headed westward over the West Pacific Ocean, but is expected to encounter a trough of low pressure this weekend that will recurve the storm to the north and northeast, bringing it very close to the coast of Japan early next week. As of midday Friday, EDT, the center of Typhoon Ma-on was near 20.7 north and 139.9 east, or about 320 miles south-southwest of Iwo To, Japan. Movement was to the west at 13 mph. Maximum-sustained winds were near 130 mph with gusts to 160 mph. Ma-on is currently over open water passing south-southwest of the Volcano Islands. The typhoon is expected to continue on a west to northwest direction over the next 48 hours, then start turning more northwest to north. Some intensification will occur during this time and Ma-on could become a super typhoon. Southern Japan will be in the direct patch of Ma-on early next week.
Current sea temperatures & cyclone activity | latest positions 
Typhoon Ma-on / JTWC | Zoom While there may be some weakening by that point, due to stronger wind shear aloft, Ma-on is still expected to be a strong typhoon and will pose a severe threat to Japan with flooding rain and destructive winds. Right now it looks like the greatest impact will be from Kyushu north into southern Honshu. However, flooding rain and strong winds will eventually move north and will threaten areas of northern Japan hit hard by this March's earthquake and tsunami. Satellite Imagery Satellite Animations Also on Friday morning, a newly formed tropical depression was over the Philippine Sea. Tropical Depression Tokage (09W) was centered near 14.6 north and 134.8 east. This is about 455 miles north of Palau. Movement was to the east at 13 mph. Maximum-sustained winds were near 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Tokage is not expected to gain much strength, due to it's close proximity to Typhoon Ma-on. In fact, this system should pretty much fall apart over the next 24-48 hours. 
West Pacific infrared satellite - Click image to enlarge
Satellite Imagery Satellite Animations The Atlantic is quiet There are currently a few tropical waves across the tropical Atlantic Basin. There is a tropical wave along 48 to 49W in the central Atlantic. This wave is moving west at about 15 knots. There is a good amount of dry air out in front of this wave, no development is expected. Another tropical wave is located along 34 to 36W. This wave is moving to the west near 15 knots. No development is expected through at least Sunday. Lastly, there is an area of low pressure off the USA southeast coast which could develop late this weekend or early next week. A stalled frontal boundary across this region may provide the focal point for this development. Currently, it is still too far out to say exactly where this low will form, and if it does how strong it will get. It does appear likely, however, that low pressure will develop off the coast of Georgia. There may be a brief one or two day period for this low to organize and strengthen. As it begins to move north by Tuesday, it will run into higher shear and will likely not be able to strengthen any further. Either way, this low will likely have minimal impacts on the U.S. 
 North Atlantic infrared satellite - Click image to enlarge 
Altalntic/Caribbean Tropical Weather Outlook | Zoom
Globe has 7th warmest June on record June 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated June the 8th warmest on record. June 2011 global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were well above average, the 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes, from the coast of Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N, were 0.9°C above average, the 5th warmest such temperatures in the past 160 years. The record was set in 2010, with a temperature of 1.3°C above average. 
Temperature Anomalies (NOAA) | Zoom
Hurricane links:
2010 Hurricane Season Links
Tropical Analysis and Forecasting (NOAA)
East Coast Wave Charts/Cams etc (Surforecasts) NHC Forecasts & Warnings(NOAA)
NHC Latest Satellite Imagary (NOAA)
Central Pacific Hurricane Center (NOAA)
West Pacific Typhoon Tracking (HZN)
Tropical Analysis and Forecasting (NOAA)
East Coast Wave Charts/Cams etc (SURForecasts) What is a Hurricane ? A hurricane (or typhoon, or severe tropical cyclone), the strongest storm on Earth, is a cyclonic (rotary) storm that derives its energy from cloud formation and rainfall. This is unlike mid-latitude storms that derive their power from a temperature gradient. The strongest hurricanes release energy the equivalant of one 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes. A hurricane begins as a tropical depression with a sustained wind speed of less than 39 mph (35 knots; 63 km/hr). Next, a tropical storm has winds from 39-73 mph (35-63 knots; 63-118 km/hr).Tropical storms are named in the Atlantic, East, Central and Northwest Pacific, in the South Indian Ocean, and in the Arabian Sea. When the winds are sustained (based on a one-minute average) at 74 mph (64 knots; 119 km/hr), the storm becomes: In the Atlantic Ocean, East Pacific, Central Pacific (east of the International Dateline) and Southeast Pacific (east of 160°E) a Hurricane; in the Northwest Pacific (west of the International Dateline) a Typhoon; in the Southwest Pacific (west of 160°E) and Southeast Indian Ocean (east of 90°E) a Severe Tropical Cyclone; in the North Indian Ocean a Severe Cyclonic Storm; and in the Southwest Indian Ocean (west of 90°E) a Tropical Cyclone. |
