There has been much lauding from Capitol Hill that the economy is doing
better. Bush has proclaimed for quite some time now that the
economy is up and he has created a plethora of new jobs. The new
budget
presented by the Bush administration reflects this projecting a 3.5%
rise in the economy next year. They also project that there will
be about 2
million more non-farm jobs in the coming year.
The projections are positive. However, where are these new jobs
Bush has been proclaiming he has already created? How has the economy
gone up and by what manner do they deem it “up”? For that matter,
how is it
that he has “created” these jobs and how can he take credit for them?
It is interesting to note that while by forecast and report the economy
story looks good for the entire country, where it’s felt is just as
important as how it looks on paper.
In a nod to Bush, any country that has faced what we have in the last
few years would drive any economy down. I dare anyone to tell me
that terrorist attacks, the uncertainty of war, corporate scandals,
rising
oil prices and recession wouldn’t. I also understand the cyclical
nature of the economy. Every big “up”, such as the enormous gains
in stock
prices and profits seen during the Clinton years will always come down
and contribute to a “recession”.
However, what I can’t seem to grasp after hearing and reading Bush’s
economic claims, is the enormity of job loss, business shutdown and
price gains still felt in local communities. The picture doesn’t
match
the story. For example, just this past November, the unemployment
rate rose to 6% and 40,000 jobs were lost after gains in August,
September and October. The story doesn’t get any better.
In my local region, plants are shutting down, warehouses and factorys
are closing altogether and/or streamlining and hundreds of people are
losing jobs. I moved from one region that had a depressed economy
and
now reside in what’s considered an economically sound area and has been
for many years, only to see the same things happening. While what
I have
seen is typical business, what I also see is affecting communities
around the country and not in just one geographical area or type of
business. In short, although Bush proclaims growth and a
strengthening economy and
the numbers from his administration reflect it, its not being felt
where it helps or hurts most.
Growth occurs when production has tapped out its available resources
and must hire more workers to grow. If a company isn’t solvent
enough
to afford more workers, it can’t boost production. If workers
aren’t working, they don’t have the expendable cash to buy more of what
is
being produced or is projected that needs to be produced. At this
time,
what I see is consumers spending the least amount possible in order to
afford
the next price hike. I see business at large not moving until
consumers start spending once again. I see a stalemate.
Even though stock prices have risen and the price per barrel on oil has
dropped, it’s not being felt by the average consumer. Until it
does, I can’t see how our economy is getting better, such as what has
been proclaimed by Bush in the past. That tax cut, while a nice
gesture, is not enough to drive people to spend and business to hire
more workers. That tax cut to the average consumer, was barely
enough to pay for one months rent. The people need something for
the long haul, like a sustainable decent paying job and/or affordable
education to get them there. They need more than just a few
hundred more dollars for a
child care credit. What about those who don’t have
children?
People need more than just a marriage credit if they are even
married. What is
needed is lower prices and longer lasting jobs, not necessarily higher
pay. Businesses need similar things. These types of things
would drive
the economy up.
I am hopeful that the upcoming budget has in it more than just talks
and plans for the future. I hope that it has something in it that
the
average American will be able to utilize in the long run and not just
after they get their tax refund, if they even get one.
I also hope that President Bush will put the accolades where they
belong; with the businesses and consumers that make it happen.
